Community Healthcare Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CHCT Stock | USD 17.03 0.04 0.24% |
Community Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Community Healthcare's stock price is slightly above 66 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Community, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.08 | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.24) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.47 | Wall Street Target Price 18 |
Using Community Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Community Healthcare Trust from the perspective of Community Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Community Healthcare using Community Healthcare's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Community using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Community Healthcare's stock price.
Community Healthcare Implied Volatility | 0.94 |
Community Healthcare's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Community Healthcare Trust stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Community Healthcare's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Community Healthcare stock will not fluctuate a lot when Community Healthcare's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Community Healthcare Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 17.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.03. Community Healthcare after-hype prediction price | USD 17.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Community | Build AI portfolio with Community Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Community contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Community Healthcare Trust will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0588% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Community Healthcare trading at USD 17.03, that is roughly USD 0.01 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Community Healthcare's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Community Healthcare Trust options at the current volatility level of 0.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Community Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Community Healthcare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Community Healthcare's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Community Healthcare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Community Healthcare's open interest, investors have to compare it to Community Healthcare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Community Healthcare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Community. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Community Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Community price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Community using various technical indicators. When you analyze Community charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Community Healthcare Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Community Healthcare Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 17.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Community Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Community Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Community Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Community Healthcare | Community Healthcare Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Community Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Community Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Community Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.59 and 18.47, respectively. We have considered Community Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Community Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Community Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0993 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0497 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1644 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.03 |
Predictive Modules for Community Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Community Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Community Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Community Healthcare After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Community Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Community Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Community Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Community Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Community Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Community Healthcare's historical news coverage. Community Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.59 and 18.47, respectively. We have considered Community Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Community Healthcare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Community Healthcare is based on 3 months time horizon.
Community Healthcare Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Community Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Community Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Community Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 1.44 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.03 | 17.03 | 0.00 |
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Community Healthcare Hype Timeline
Community Healthcare is currently traded for 17.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Community is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Community Healthcare is about 3063.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.01. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.14. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Community Healthcare recorded a loss per share of 0.39. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Community Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.Community Healthcare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Community Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Community Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how Community Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Community Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GMRE | Global Medical REIT | (0.46) | 6 per month | 1.20 | 0.08 | 3.49 | (1.87) | 9.05 | |
| NREF | Nexpoint Real Estate | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.33 | 0.07 | 2.44 | (2.47) | 8.26 | |
| NLOP | Net Lease Office | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.62 | (1.87) | 7.34 | |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.01 | (5.50) | 17.41 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | (0.1) | 10 per month | 1.01 | (0.02) | 2.17 | (1.72) | 6.81 | |
| FPH | Five Point Holdings | (0.12) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.56 | (2.83) | 6.59 | |
| NHPBP | National Healthcare Properties | (0.1) | 7 per month | 0.71 | 0.06 | 1.49 | (1.34) | 6.37 | |
| FPI | Farmland Partners | (0.07) | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.06 | 2.03 | (1.87) | 5.49 | |
| SITC | Site Centers Corp | 0.01 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.30 | (2.62) | 6.71 | |
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | 0.48 | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.04 | 2.05 | (2.05) | 6.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for Community Healthcare
For every potential investor in Community, whether a beginner or expert, Community Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Community Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Community. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Community Healthcare's price trends.Community Healthcare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Community Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Community Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Community Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Community Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Community Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Community Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Community Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Community Healthcare Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Community Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of Community Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Community Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting community stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Variance | 2.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Community Healthcare
The number of cover stories for Community Healthcare depends on current market conditions and Community Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Community Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Community Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Community Healthcare Short Properties
Community Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Community Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Community Healthcare Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Community Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Community Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 26.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 M |
Additional Tools for Community Stock Analysis
When running Community Healthcare's price analysis, check to measure Community Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Community Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Community Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Community Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Community Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Community Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.