Ciena Corp Stock Forward View - 20 Period Moving Average
| CIEN Stock | USD 544.75 6.24 1.16% |
Ciena Corp's 20 Period Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The 20 Period Moving Average model projects Ciena Corp at 502.46 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The 20 Period Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average model forecasts Ciena Corp at 502.46 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 47.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.10 , and sum of absolute errors of 1,933 .This indicates limited forecast accuracy — the model does not closely track Ciena Corp's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ciena Corp | Ciena Corp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Ciena Corp frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The current forecast range spans downside near 497.71 and upside near 507.21. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 20 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Ciena Corp stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 89.3177 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -46.9962 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 47.1368 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1932.6095 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ciena Corp
Analyzing Ciena Corp's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Ciena Corp's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.Ciena Corp Related Equities
Sizing up Ciena Corp against these stocks within the Information Technology space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Ciena Corp's results. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ciena Corp Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Ciena Corp, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Ciena Corp.
| Accumulation Distribution | 63768.76 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2815 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 550.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 548.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -2.94 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 6.24 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.68 |
Ciena Corp Risk Indicators
Analyzing Ciena Corp's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ciena stock. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Ciena Corp.
| Mean Deviation | 3.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.84 | |||
| Variance | 23.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 20.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -4.04 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Ciena Corp Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Ciena Corp is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.25 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.31 billion |