Ciena Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| CIEN Stock | USD 229.14 0.89 0.39% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ciena Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 247.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.91. Ciena Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Ciena Corp's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ciena Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ciena Corp from the perspective of Ciena Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ciena Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 247.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.91. Ciena Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 228.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ciena Corp to cross-verify your projections. Ciena Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ciena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ciena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ciena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ciena Corp Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ciena Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 247.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.42, mean absolute percentage error of 134.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ciena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ciena Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ciena Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ciena Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ciena Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ciena Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 243.32 and 251.88, respectively. We have considered Ciena Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ciena Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ciena Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.0114 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.4248 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0439 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 574.9131 |
Predictive Modules for Ciena Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ciena Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ciena Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ciena Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ciena Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ciena Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ciena Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ciena Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ciena Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ciena Corp's historical news coverage. Ciena Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 224.15 and 232.71, respectively. We have considered Ciena Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ciena Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ciena Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ciena Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ciena Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ciena Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ciena Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 4.28 | 0.71 | 0.34 | 15 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
229.14 | 228.43 | 0.31 |
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Ciena Corp Hype Timeline
Ciena Corp is currently traded for 229.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.71, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.34. Ciena is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 228.43. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Ciena Corp is about 583.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 228.80. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.08. Ciena Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:7 split on the 25th of September 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ciena Corp to cross-verify your projections.Ciena Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ciena Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ciena Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Ciena Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ciena Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 8.34 | (7.23) | 23.45 | |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise | (0.47) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.85 | (4.17) | 9.92 | |
| WIT | Wipro Limited ADR | 0.08 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.28 | (2.05) | 14.40 | |
| SATS | EchoStar | (3.68) | 26 per month | 1.63 | 0.26 | 5.98 | (3.35) | 16.91 | |
| ASTS | Ast Spacemobile | (2.68) | 3 per month | 6.15 | 0.09 | 14.34 | (11.34) | 30.31 | |
| ERIC | Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.04 | 3.48 | (1.65) | 8.46 | |
| BR | Broadridge Financial Solutions | (2.68) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.42 | (1.92) | 6.31 | |
| ZM | Zoom Video Communications | (0.62) | 12 per month | 1.75 | 0.01 | 3.43 | (3.14) | 13.95 | |
| TDY | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | 11.22 | 9 per month | 1.51 | 0.02 | 2.15 | (2.03) | 9.84 | |
| TER | Teradyne | (8.46) | 8 per month | 2.28 | 0.20 | 6.80 | (4.05) | 27.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ciena Corp
For every potential investor in Ciena, whether a beginner or expert, Ciena Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ciena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ciena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ciena Corp's price trends.Ciena Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ciena Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ciena Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ciena Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ciena Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ciena Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ciena Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ciena Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ciena Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ciena Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ciena Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ciena Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ciena stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.28 | |||
| Variance | 18.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ciena Corp
The number of cover stories for Ciena Corp depends on current market conditions and Ciena Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ciena Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ciena Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ciena Corp Short Properties
Ciena Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ciena Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ciena Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ciena Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ciena Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ciena Corp to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Ciena Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ciena Corp guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ciena Corp. If investors know Ciena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ciena Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Ciena Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ciena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ciena Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ciena Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ciena Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ciena Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ciena Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ciena Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ciena Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.