Caledonia Mining Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average
| CMCL Stock | USD 24.28 0.36 1.51% |
Caledonia Mining's 4 Period Moving Average forecast is generated from the selected price series and evaluated against observed values. Forecast accuracy depends on how stable the recent price trend has been — trending markets suit some models better than others. The forecast is recalculated with each session so it does not rely on stale inputs. A small Bias confirms the model is not systematically over- or under-predicting. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Caledonia Mining at 23.58 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. All values shown are model-generated projections and should be evaluated alongside other analytical inputs.
4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Caledonia Mining at 23.58 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and sum of absolute errors of 59.40 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Caledonia Mining's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Caledonia Mining | Caledonia Mining Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Caledonia Mining frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The model places downside around 20.07 and upside around 27.09 for the next session. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Caledonia Mining stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3046 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2058 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0421 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0413 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.4 |
Other Forecasting Options for Caledonia Mining
Bollinger Bands applied to Caledonia Mining Stock price data measure how far Caledonia Mining has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Caledonia Mining's price data. On-balance volume for Caledonia Mining Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Caledonia Mining. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Caledonia Mining's.Caledonia Mining Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Caledonia Mining within the Materials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Looking at Caledonia Mining's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. When Caledonia Mining breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caledonia Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Caledonia Mining quantify how the stock responds to shifts in volume and sentiment. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Caledonia Mining. The Market Facilitation Index measures how efficiently price moves relative to volume — rising MFI with rising volume signals strong trend participation. Monitoring these indicators for Caledonia Mining through complete market cycles reveals recurring patterns.
Caledonia Mining Risk Indicators
Analyzing Caledonia Mining's risk indicators separates symmetric price swings from asymmetric downside exposure. Understanding and quantifying the risks present in Caledonia Mining helps place recent price behavior in context. These metrics are most informative when compared against similar equities with comparable growth profiles and market capitalization. When semi-deviation is high relative to standard deviation, Caledonia Mining's losses have been disproportionately large compared to gains.
| Mean Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.6 | |||
| Variance | 13.0 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Caledonia Mining Short Properties
Short-interest data for Caledonia Mining reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.51 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 35.74 million |