Caledonia Mining Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CMCL Stock | USD 31.40 1.79 6.05% |
Caledonia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Caledonia Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Caledonia Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Caledonia Mining fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength momentum indicator of Caledonia Mining's share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Caledonia Mining, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.417 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.84 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.35 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.35 | Wall Street Target Price 46.25 |
Using Caledonia Mining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caledonia Mining from the perspective of Caledonia Mining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Caledonia Mining using Caledonia Mining's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Caledonia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Caledonia Mining's stock price.
Caledonia Mining Short Interest
An investor who is long Caledonia Mining may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Caledonia Mining and may potentially protect profits, hedge Caledonia Mining with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 24.3005 | Short Percent 0.0178 | Short Ratio 1.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 283.6 K | 50 Day MA 27.4328 |
Caledonia Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caledonia Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 31.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.04.Caledonia Mining Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Caledonia Mining's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Caledonia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Caledonia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Caledonia Mining. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Caledonia Mining's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Caledonia Mining.
Caledonia Mining Implied Volatility | 0.98 |
Caledonia Mining's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caledonia Mining stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caledonia Mining's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caledonia Mining stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caledonia Mining's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caledonia Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 31.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.04. Caledonia Mining after-hype prediction price | USD 31.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Caledonia | Build AI portfolio with Caledonia Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Caledonia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Caledonia Mining will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0613% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Caledonia Mining trading at USD 31.4, that is roughly USD 0.0192 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Caledonia Mining's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Caledonia Mining options at the current volatility level of 0.98%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Caledonia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Caledonia Mining's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Caledonia Mining's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Caledonia Mining stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Caledonia Mining's open interest, investors have to compare it to Caledonia Mining's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Caledonia Mining is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Caledonia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Caledonia Mining Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caledonia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caledonia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caledonia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Caledonia Mining Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Caledonia Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 31.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caledonia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caledonia Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Caledonia Mining Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Caledonia Mining | Caledonia Mining Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Caledonia Mining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Caledonia Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caledonia Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.69 and 36.11, respectively. We have considered Caledonia Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caledonia Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caledonia Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8891 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0213 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.884 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0323 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.04 |
Predictive Modules for Caledonia Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caledonia Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caledonia Mining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caledonia Mining After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caledonia Mining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caledonia Mining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caledonia Mining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caledonia Mining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caledonia Mining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caledonia Mining's historical news coverage. Caledonia Mining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.72 and 36.08, respectively. We have considered Caledonia Mining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caledonia Mining is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caledonia Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caledonia Mining Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caledonia Mining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caledonia Mining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caledonia Mining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 4.71 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 4 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.40 | 31.40 | 0.00 |
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Caledonia Mining Hype Timeline
Caledonia Mining is currently traded for 31.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Caledonia is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Caledonia Mining is about 2505.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.37. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Caledonia Mining was currently reported as 12.81. The company last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2025. Caledonia Mining had 1:5 split on the 27th of June 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caledonia Mining to cross-verify your projections.Caledonia Mining Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caledonia Mining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caledonia Mining's future price movements. Getting to know how Caledonia Mining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caledonia Mining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GAU | Galiano Gold | (0.03) | 8 per month | 4.52 | 0.02 | 6.97 | (7.72) | 17.52 | |
| IDR | Idaho Strategic Resources | (0.30) | 21 per month | 4.76 | 0.05 | 9.81 | (8.14) | 28.96 | |
| WLKP | Westlake Chemical Partners | (0.12) | 10 per month | 1.23 | 0.04 | 2.81 | (1.86) | 8.30 | |
| IAUX | i 80 Gold Corp | (0.02) | 13 per month | 3.48 | 0.21 | 5.62 | (5.15) | 14.98 | |
| NFGC | New Found Gold | 0.02 | 9 per month | 4.36 | 0.11 | 7.77 | (8.41) | 28.90 | |
| GPRE | Green Plains Renewable | (0.30) | 10 per month | 4.21 | 0.01 | 7.63 | (5.62) | 27.29 | |
| DC | Dakota Gold Corp | 0.12 | 10 per month | 2.95 | 0.13 | 5.90 | (4.76) | 26.64 | |
| NMG | Nouveau Monde Graphite | (0.04) | 10 per month | 5.49 | (0) | 6.88 | (7.51) | 29.51 | |
| SGML | Sigma Lithium Resources | (1.41) | 10 per month | 6.77 | 0.16 | 15.91 | (13.89) | 48.40 | |
| LWLG | Lightwave Logic | 0.20 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.03 | (9.16) | 31.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Caledonia Mining
For every potential investor in Caledonia, whether a beginner or expert, Caledonia Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caledonia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caledonia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caledonia Mining's price trends.Caledonia Mining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caledonia Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caledonia Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caledonia Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caledonia Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caledonia Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caledonia Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caledonia Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caledonia Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Caledonia Mining Risk Indicators
The analysis of Caledonia Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caledonia Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caledonia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.79 | |||
| Variance | 22.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Caledonia Mining
The number of cover stories for Caledonia Mining depends on current market conditions and Caledonia Mining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caledonia Mining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caledonia Mining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Caledonia Mining Short Properties
Caledonia Mining's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caledonia Mining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caledonia Mining often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caledonia Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caledonia Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caledonia Mining to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Caledonia Stock please use our How to buy in Caledonia Stock guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caledonia Mining. If investors know Caledonia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caledonia Mining listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.417 | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 2.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.529 |
The market value of Caledonia Mining is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caledonia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caledonia Mining's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caledonia Mining's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caledonia Mining's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caledonia Mining's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caledonia Mining's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caledonia Mining is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caledonia Mining's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.