Caledonia Mining Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| CMCL Stock | USD 10.73 0.46 4.11% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Caledonia Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 13.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.08. Caledonia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Caledonia Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Caledonia Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Caledonia Mining fundamentals over time.
Caledonia |
Caledonia Mining Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Caledonia Mining on the next trading day is expected to be 13.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54, mean absolute percentage error of 2.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caledonia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caledonia Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Caledonia Mining Stock Forecast Pattern
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Caledonia Mining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Caledonia Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caledonia Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.81 and 16.70, respectively. We have considered Caledonia Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caledonia Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caledonia Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.188 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5424 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 94.084 |
Predictive Modules for Caledonia Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caledonia Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caledonia Mining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Caledonia Mining
For every potential investor in Caledonia, whether a beginner or expert, Caledonia Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caledonia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caledonia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caledonia Mining's price trends.Caledonia Mining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caledonia Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caledonia Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caledonia Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caledonia Mining Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Caledonia Mining's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Caledonia Mining's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Caledonia Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caledonia Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caledonia Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caledonia Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caledonia Mining entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Caledonia Mining Risk Indicators
The analysis of Caledonia Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caledonia Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caledonia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Variance | 8.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caledonia Mining to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Caledonia Stock please use our How to buy in Caledonia Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caledonia Mining. If investors know Caledonia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caledonia Mining listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share 0.48 | Revenue Per Share 8.621 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.14 |
The market value of Caledonia Mining is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caledonia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caledonia Mining's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caledonia Mining's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caledonia Mining's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caledonia Mining's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caledonia Mining's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caledonia Mining is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caledonia Mining's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.