Chipotle Mexican Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CMG Stock | USD 40.83 0.29 0.72% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chipotle Mexican Grill on the next trading day is expected to be 40.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.81. Chipotle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Chipotle Mexican's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength indicator of Chipotle Mexican's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.022 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.282 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1575 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2161 | Wall Street Target Price 44.7941 |
Using Chipotle Mexican hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chipotle Mexican Grill from the perspective of Chipotle Mexican response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Chipotle Mexican using Chipotle Mexican's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Chipotle using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Chipotle Mexican's stock price.
Chipotle Mexican Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Chipotle Mexican's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Chipotle. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Chipotle Mexican stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 43.5503 | Short Percent 0.0262 | Short Ratio 1.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 31.5 M | 50 Day MA 35.4924 |
Chipotle Mexican Grill Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Chipotle Mexican's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Chipotle. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chipotle can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chipotle Mexican Grill. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Chipotle Mexican Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
Chipotle Mexican's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Chipotle Mexican Grill stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Chipotle Mexican's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Chipotle Mexican stock will not fluctuate a lot when Chipotle Mexican's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chipotle Mexican Grill on the next trading day is expected to be 40.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.81.
Chipotle Mexican after-hype prediction price | USD 40.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chipotle Mexican to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Chipotle contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Chipotle Mexican Grill will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Chipotle Mexican trading at USD 40.83, that is roughly USD 0.0117 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Chipotle Mexican's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Chipotle Mexican Grill options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Chipotle Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Chipotle Mexican's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Chipotle Mexican's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Chipotle Mexican stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Chipotle Mexican's open interest, investors have to compare it to Chipotle Mexican's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Chipotle Mexican is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Chipotle. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Chipotle Mexican Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Chipotle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chipotle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chipotle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Chipotle Mexican Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Chipotle Mexican Grill on the next trading day is expected to be 40.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.79, mean absolute percentage error of 1.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Chipotle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Chipotle Mexican's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Chipotle Mexican Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Chipotle Mexican | Chipotle Mexican Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Chipotle Mexican Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Chipotle Mexican's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Chipotle Mexican's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.55 and 43.82, respectively. We have considered Chipotle Mexican's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Chipotle Mexican stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Chipotle Mexican stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0528 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0053 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7934 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.81 |
Predictive Modules for Chipotle Mexican
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chipotle Mexican Grill. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chipotle Mexican After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Chipotle Mexican at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chipotle Mexican or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chipotle Mexican, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Chipotle Mexican Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Chipotle Mexican's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chipotle Mexican's historical news coverage. Chipotle Mexican's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.76 and 44.02, respectively. We have considered Chipotle Mexican's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Chipotle Mexican is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chipotle Mexican Grill is based on 3 months time horizon.
Chipotle Mexican Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Chipotle Mexican is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chipotle Mexican backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chipotle Mexican, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 3.13 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
40.83 | 40.89 | 0.12 |
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Chipotle Mexican Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Chipotle Mexican Grill is traded for 40.83. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Chipotle is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 40.89 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Chipotle Mexican is about 389.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.80. The company reported the last year's revenue of 11.31 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.53 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.74 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chipotle Mexican to cross-verify your projections.Chipotle Mexican Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Chipotle Mexican's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chipotle Mexican's future price movements. Getting to know how Chipotle Mexican's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chipotle Mexican may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YUM | Yum Brands | 0.29 | 7 per month | 1.12 | (0.0006) | 2.49 | (1.79) | 11.71 | |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands | (0.49) | 9 per month | 1.24 | 0.11 | 3.19 | (2.38) | 17.14 | |
| CPRT | Copart Inc | (1.38) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.22 | (3.52) | 6.88 | |
| DHI | DR Horton | 3.20 | 8 per month | 1.70 | (0.02) | 4.73 | (3.28) | 10.93 | |
| TCOM | Trip Group Ltd | (1.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.70 | (3.34) | 21.80 | |
| EBAY | eBay Inc | (1.07) | 9 per month | 3.20 | (0.01) | 2.97 | (3.16) | 19.83 | |
| CCL | Carnival | (0.29) | 11 per month | 2.75 | (0.02) | 3.88 | (3.65) | 12.92 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.20) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.89 | (2.77) | 7.60 | |
| FLUT | Flutter Entertainment plc | (8.65) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.01 | (3.89) | 17.33 | |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | 1.64 | 7 per month | 0.98 | (0.05) | 2.13 | (1.73) | 6.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Chipotle Mexican
For every potential investor in Chipotle, whether a beginner or expert, Chipotle Mexican's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Chipotle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Chipotle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Chipotle Mexican's price trends.Chipotle Mexican Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Chipotle Mexican stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Chipotle Mexican could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Chipotle Mexican by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Chipotle Mexican Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Chipotle Mexican stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Chipotle Mexican shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Chipotle Mexican stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Chipotle Mexican Grill entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Chipotle Mexican Risk Indicators
The analysis of Chipotle Mexican's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Chipotle Mexican's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chipotle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Variance | 9.18 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Chipotle Mexican
The number of cover stories for Chipotle Mexican depends on current market conditions and Chipotle Mexican's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chipotle Mexican is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chipotle Mexican's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Chipotle Mexican Short Properties
Chipotle Mexican's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chipotle Mexican's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chipotle Mexican Grill often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chipotle Mexican's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chipotle Mexican's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Chipotle Mexican to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chipotle Mexican. If investors know Chipotle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chipotle Mexican listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.022 | Earnings Share 1.13 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.075 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Chipotle Mexican Grill is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chipotle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chipotle Mexican's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chipotle Mexican's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chipotle Mexican's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chipotle Mexican's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chipotle Mexican's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Chipotle Mexican is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chipotle Mexican's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.