Capstone Mining Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| CS Stock | CAD 14.13 0.55 3.75% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Capstone Mining Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.62. Capstone Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Capstone Mining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Capstone Mining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Capstone Mining fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Capstone Mining's share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Capstone Mining, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 18.384 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1262 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3049 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9978 | Wall Street Target Price 16.4269 |
Using Capstone Mining hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Capstone Mining Corp from the perspective of Capstone Mining response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Capstone Mining Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.62. Capstone Mining after-hype prediction price | CAD 14.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Capstone |
Capstone Mining Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Capstone price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Capstone using various technical indicators. When you analyze Capstone charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Capstone Mining Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Capstone Mining Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Capstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Capstone Mining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Capstone Mining Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Capstone Mining | Capstone Mining Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Capstone Mining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Capstone Mining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Capstone Mining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.24 and 17.61, respectively. We have considered Capstone Mining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Capstone Mining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Capstone Mining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7068 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3708 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0298 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.6162 |
Predictive Modules for Capstone Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capstone Mining Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Capstone Mining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Capstone Mining After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Capstone Mining at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Capstone Mining or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Capstone Mining, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Capstone Mining Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Capstone Mining's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Capstone Mining's historical news coverage. Capstone Mining's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.94 and 17.32, respectively. We have considered Capstone Mining's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Capstone Mining is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Capstone Mining Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Capstone Mining Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Capstone Mining is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Capstone Mining backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Capstone Mining, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 3.19 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.13 | 14.13 | 0.00 |
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Capstone Mining Hype Timeline
Capstone Mining Corp is currently traded for 14.13on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Capstone is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.39%. %. The volatility of related hype on Capstone Mining is about 41014.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.13. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Capstone Mining was currently reported as 6.04. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Capstone Mining Corp had 1:5 split on the 17th of May 2001. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Capstone Mining to cross-verify your projections.Capstone Mining Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Capstone Mining's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Capstone Mining's future price movements. Getting to know how Capstone Mining's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Capstone Mining may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LIO | Lion One Metals | (0.02) | 3 per month | 3.16 | 0.06 | 4.35 | (6.45) | 18.50 | |
| AUAU | Allegiant Gold | (0.06) | 4 per month | 3.89 | 0.02 | 6.52 | (6.98) | 18.71 | |
| UGD | Unigold | (0.01) | 7 per month | 3.69 | 0 | 6.25 | (5.56) | 24.88 | |
| GPAC | Great Pacific Gold | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.98 | (8.00) | 24.69 | |
| VEIN | Pasofino Gold Limited | (0.02) | 9 per month | 4.10 | 0.08 | 8.93 | (7.27) | 20.40 | |
| ABI | Abcourt Mines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.74 | 0.09 | 14.29 | (12.50) | 39.68 | |
| SPA | Spanish Mountain Gold | 0.02 | 5 per month | 4.28 | 0.09 | 12.50 | (7.69) | 44.23 | |
| SGN | Scorpio Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.88 | 0.07 | 11.76 | (7.32) | 25.25 | |
| FMAN | Freeman Gold Corp | 0.01 | 3 per month | 3.67 | 0.14 | 12.50 | (5.56) | 21.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Capstone Mining
For every potential investor in Capstone, whether a beginner or expert, Capstone Mining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Capstone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Capstone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Capstone Mining's price trends.Capstone Mining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Capstone Mining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Capstone Mining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Capstone Mining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Capstone Mining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Capstone Mining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Capstone Mining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Capstone Mining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Capstone Mining Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 534849.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.38) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.55) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.55) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.14 |
Capstone Mining Risk Indicators
The analysis of Capstone Mining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Capstone Mining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting capstone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.16 | |||
| Variance | 9.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Capstone Mining
The number of cover stories for Capstone Mining depends on current market conditions and Capstone Mining's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Capstone Mining is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Capstone Mining's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Capstone Mining Short Properties
Capstone Mining's future price predictability will typically decrease when Capstone Mining's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Capstone Mining Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Capstone Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Capstone Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 752.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 132.3 M |
Other Information on Investing in Capstone Stock
Capstone Mining financial ratios help investors to determine whether Capstone Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Capstone with respect to the benefits of owning Capstone Mining security.