Cosan SA Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CSAN Stock  USD 7.22  0.39  5.12%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cosan SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 7.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.80. Cosan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Cosan SA's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cosan SA's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cosan SA fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Cosan SA's Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 22nd of November 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 9.06, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 10.83. . As of the 22nd of November 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 2 B. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 2.5 B.
Triple exponential smoothing for Cosan SA - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Cosan SA prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Cosan SA price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Cosan SA ADR.

Cosan SA Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cosan SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 7.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.80.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cosan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cosan SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cosan SA Stock Forecast Pattern

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Cosan SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cosan SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cosan SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.82 and 9.50, respectively. We have considered Cosan SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.22
7.16
Expected Value
9.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cosan SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cosan SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0214
MADMean absolute deviation0.1661
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0188
SAESum of the absolute errors9.8
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Cosan SA observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Cosan SA ADR observations.

Predictive Modules for Cosan SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cosan SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.927.269.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.5010.7413.08
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.7620.6122.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cosan SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cosan SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cosan SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cosan SA ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Cosan SA

For every potential investor in Cosan, whether a beginner or expert, Cosan SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cosan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cosan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cosan SA's price trends.

Cosan SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cosan SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cosan SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cosan SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cosan SA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cosan SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cosan SA's current price.

Cosan SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cosan SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cosan SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cosan SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cosan SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cosan SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cosan SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cosan SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cosan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Cosan SA

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cosan SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cosan SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Cosan Stock

  0.8DINO HF Sinclair CorpPairCorr
  0.62DK Delek EnergyPairCorr

Moving against Cosan Stock

  0.81BDCO Blue Dolphin EnergyPairCorr
  0.73AE Adams Resources EnergyPairCorr
  0.61AMTX AemetisPairCorr
  0.6EE Excelerate EnergyPairCorr
  0.45AM Antero Midstream PartnersPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cosan SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cosan SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cosan SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cosan SA ADR to buy it.
The correlation of Cosan SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cosan SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cosan SA ADR moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cosan SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Cosan SA ADR offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Cosan SA's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cosan Sa Adr Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cosan Sa Adr Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cosan SA to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cosan SA. If investors know Cosan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cosan SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.389
Dividend Share
0.451
Earnings Share
0.97
Revenue Per Share
86.48
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.064
The market value of Cosan SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cosan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cosan SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cosan SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cosan SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cosan SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cosan SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cosan SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cosan SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.