Citizens Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| CZFS Stock | USD 62.80 1.90 2.94% |
Citizens Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Citizens Financial's share price is at 56 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Citizens Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.328 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.79 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.49 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.7 | Wall Street Target Price 65 |
Using Citizens Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citizens Financial Services from the perspective of Citizens Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Citizens Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Citizens Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 63.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.30.Citizens Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Citizens Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Citizens. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Citizens can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Citizens Financial Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Citizens Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Citizens Financial.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Citizens Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 63.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.30. Citizens Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 65.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens Financial to cross-verify your projections. Citizens Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Citizens price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citizens using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citizens charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Citizens Financial Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Citizens Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 63.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 1.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Citizens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Citizens Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Citizens Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Citizens Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Citizens Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Citizens Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 61.57 and 65.93, respectively. We have considered Citizens Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Citizens Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Citizens Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0773 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2499 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.056 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.305 |
Predictive Modules for Citizens Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citizens Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citizens Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Citizens Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citizens Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citizens Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Citizens Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Citizens Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citizens Financial's historical news coverage. Citizens Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.02 and 67.38, respectively. We have considered Citizens Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Citizens Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citizens Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Citizens Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Citizens Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citizens Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citizens Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.18 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
62.80 | 65.20 | 0.77 |
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Citizens Financial Hype Timeline
Citizens Financial is currently traded for 62.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Citizens is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 65.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.77%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Citizens Financial is about 3303.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.82. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 168.62 M. Net Income was 27.82 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 107.4 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Citizens Financial to cross-verify your projections.Citizens Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Citizens Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citizens Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Citizens Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citizens Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LNKB | LINKBANCORP | (0.06) | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.14 | 3.66 | (2.39) | 8.31 | |
| NECB | Northeast Community Bancorp | (0.13) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.08 | 3.69 | (2.36) | 7.66 | |
| PKBK | Parke Bancorp | (0.41) | 8 per month | 0.46 | 0.26 | 3.36 | (1.33) | 6.17 | |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | 0.67 | 7 per month | 1.04 | 0.09 | 2.78 | (1.63) | 8.74 | |
| COSO | CoastalSouth Bancshares | 0.05 | 28 per month | 0.85 | 0.07 | 1.66 | (1.54) | 6.77 | |
| FDBC | Fidelity DD Bancorp | 0.34 | 8 per month | 1.58 | (0.02) | 3.52 | (2.73) | 9.91 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | (0.34) | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.04 | 3.44 | (2.04) | 7.07 | |
| MBCN | Middlefield Banc | 0.43 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.1 | 3.95 | (2.93) | 21.64 | |
| CZNC | Citizens Northern Corp | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.19 | 0.08 | 2.76 | (1.71) | 7.41 | |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp | 0.05 | 12 per month | 1.24 | 0.08 | 2.41 | (2.59) | 9.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Citizens Financial
For every potential investor in Citizens, whether a beginner or expert, Citizens Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Citizens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Citizens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Citizens Financial's price trends.Citizens Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Citizens Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Citizens Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Citizens Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Citizens Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Citizens Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Citizens Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Citizens Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Citizens Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 62.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 62.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.95) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.90) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.75 |
Citizens Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Citizens Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Citizens Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting citizens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Citizens Financial
The number of cover stories for Citizens Financial depends on current market conditions and Citizens Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citizens Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citizens Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Citizens Financial Short Properties
Citizens Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Citizens Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Citizens Financial Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Citizens Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citizens Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.1 M |
Additional Tools for Citizens Stock Analysis
When running Citizens Financial's price analysis, check to measure Citizens Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citizens Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Citizens Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citizens Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citizens Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citizens Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.