Donegal Group Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| DGICA Stock | USD 18.67 0.22 1.19% |
Donegal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Donegal Group stock prices and determine the direction of Donegal Group A's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Donegal Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Donegal Group's share price is approaching 45 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Donegal Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.089 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.49 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.16 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.95 | Wall Street Target Price 21.5 |
Using Donegal Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Donegal Group A from the perspective of Donegal Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Donegal Group using Donegal Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Donegal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Donegal Group's stock price.
Donegal Group Implied Volatility | 1.35 |
Donegal Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Donegal Group A stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Donegal Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Donegal Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Donegal Group's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Donegal Group A on the next trading day is expected to be 18.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67. Donegal Group after-hype prediction price | USD 18.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Donegal Group to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Donegal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Donegal Group A will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0844% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Donegal Group trading at USD 18.67, that is roughly USD 0.0158 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Donegal Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Donegal Group A options at the current volatility level of 1.35%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Donegal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Donegal Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Donegal Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Donegal Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Donegal Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Donegal Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Donegal Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Donegal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Donegal Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Donegal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Donegal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Donegal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Donegal Group Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Donegal Group A on the next trading day is expected to be 18.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Donegal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Donegal Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Donegal Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Donegal Group | Donegal Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Donegal Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Donegal Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Donegal Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.33 and 20.01, respectively. We have considered Donegal Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Donegal Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Donegal Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8107 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2446 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.675 |
Predictive Modules for Donegal Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Donegal Group A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Donegal Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Donegal Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Donegal Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Donegal Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Donegal Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Donegal Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Donegal Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Donegal Group's historical news coverage. Donegal Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.33 and 20.01, respectively. We have considered Donegal Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Donegal Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Donegal Group A is based on 3 months time horizon.
Donegal Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Donegal Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Donegal Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Donegal Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.67 | 18.67 | 0.00 |
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Donegal Group Hype Timeline
Donegal Group A is currently traded for 18.67. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Donegal is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Donegal Group is about 1107.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.67. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.08. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Donegal Group A last dividend was issued on the 3rd of February 2026. The entity had 4:3 split on the 27th of April 2006. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Donegal Group to cross-verify your projections.Donegal Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Donegal Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Donegal Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Donegal Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Donegal Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ACIC | American Coastal Insurance | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.82 | (2.36) | 8.47 | |
| UFCS | United Fire Group | (0.18) | 17 per month | 1.10 | 0.07 | 2.14 | (2.09) | 17.21 | |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | 0.13 | 7 per month | 2.90 | 0.03 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| NCDL | Nuveen Churchill Direct | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.17 | (1.80) | 6.20 | |
| TIPT | Tiptree | (0.04) | 8 per month | 1.26 | (0.04) | 2.14 | (1.86) | 7.30 | |
| VEL | Velocity Financial Llc | (0.32) | 9 per month | 1.46 | 0.05 | 2.83 | (2.42) | 12.39 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | (0.72) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.01 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings | 0.33 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.43 | (3.08) | 10.03 | |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.94 | (1.84) | 5.94 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | (0.34) | 10 per month | 1.16 | 0.07 | 2.72 | (1.66) | 8.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for Donegal Group
For every potential investor in Donegal, whether a beginner or expert, Donegal Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Donegal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Donegal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Donegal Group's price trends.Donegal Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Donegal Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Donegal Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Donegal Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Donegal Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Donegal Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Donegal Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Donegal Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Donegal Group A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Donegal Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Donegal Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Donegal Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting donegal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Donegal Group
The number of cover stories for Donegal Group depends on current market conditions and Donegal Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Donegal Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Donegal Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Donegal Group Short Properties
Donegal Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Donegal Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Donegal Group A often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Donegal Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Donegal Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 401.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Donegal Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Donegal Group. Projected growth potential of Donegal fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Donegal Group assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.089 | Dividend Share 0.71 | Earnings Share 2.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Understanding Donegal Group A requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Donegal's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Donegal Group's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Donegal Group's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Donegal Group's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Donegal Group should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Donegal Group's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.