Trump Media Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| DJT Stock | 14.79 0.66 4.67% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Trump Media Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 13.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.19. Trump Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Trump Media's share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Trump Media, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
Using Trump Media hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trump Media Technology from the perspective of Trump Media response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Trump Media using Trump Media's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Trump using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Trump Media's stock price.
Trump Media Short Interest
An investor who is long Trump Media may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Trump Media and may potentially protect profits, hedge Trump Media with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 17.429 | Short Percent 0.0717 | Short Ratio 0.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.9 M | 50 Day MA 12.463 |
Trump Media Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Trump Media's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Trump. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Trump can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Trump Media Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Trump Media Implied Volatility | 0.88 |
Trump Media's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Trump Media Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Trump Media's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Trump Media stock will not fluctuate a lot when Trump Media's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Trump Media Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 13.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.19.
Trump Media after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trump Media to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Trump contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Trump Media Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.055% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Trump Media trading at USD 14.79, that is roughly USD 0.008134 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Trump Media's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Trump Media Technology options at the current volatility level of 0.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Trump Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trump Media's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Trump Media's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Trump Media stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trump Media's open interest, investors have to compare it to Trump Media's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trump Media is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trump. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Trump Media Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trump price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trump using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trump charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trump Media Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Trump Media Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 13.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54, mean absolute percentage error of 3.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trump Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trump Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trump Media Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trump Media | Trump Media Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Trump Media Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trump Media's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trump Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.68 and 19.78, respectively. We have considered Trump Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trump Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trump Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0841 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5354 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1222 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 95.192 |
Predictive Modules for Trump Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trump Media Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trump Media After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trump Media at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trump Media or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trump Media, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trump Media Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trump Media's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trump Media's historical news coverage. Trump Media's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 6.50, respectively. We have considered Trump Media's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trump Media is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trump Media Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trump Media Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trump Media is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trump Media backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trump Media, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 6.55 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 13 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Trump Media Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Trump Media Technology is traded for 14.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Trump is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Trump Media is about 992.42%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.76. About 43.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.69. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Trump Media Technology recorded a loss per share of 0.42. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trump Media to cross-verify your projections.Trump Media Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trump Media's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trump Media's future price movements. Getting to know how Trump Media's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trump Media may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TDS | Telephone and Data | (0.28) | 8 per month | 1.34 | 0.09 | 2.81 | (2.35) | 8.49 | |
| JOYY | JOYY Inc | 0.12 | 23 per month | 1.51 | 0.10 | 3.58 | (2.70) | 10.63 | |
| TKC | Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri | 1.83 | 12 per month | 1.28 | 0.01 | 2.59 | (2.18) | 6.19 | |
| PHI | PLDT Inc ADR | (0.60) | 13 per month | 0.74 | 0.14 | 2.33 | (1.68) | 7.29 | |
| WPP | WPP PLC ADR | (0.11) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.16 | (5.22) | 19.53 | |
| AD | Array Digital Infrastructure | (0.28) | 6 per month | 1.71 | 0.10 | 3.45 | (2.88) | 8.91 | |
| WB | Weibo Corp | (6.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.13 | (2.35) | 9.22 | |
| GENI | Genius Sports | 0.12 | 19 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.45 | (4.52) | 18.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trump Media
For every potential investor in Trump, whether a beginner or expert, Trump Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trump Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trump. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trump Media's price trends.Trump Media Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trump Media stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trump Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trump Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trump Media Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trump Media stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trump Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trump Media stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trump Media Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trump Media Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trump Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trump Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trump stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.25 | |||
| Variance | 39.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trump Media
The number of cover stories for Trump Media depends on current market conditions and Trump Media's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trump Media is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trump Media's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trump Media Short Properties
Trump Media's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trump Media's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trump Media Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trump Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trump Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 169.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 776.8 M |
Additional Tools for Trump Stock Analysis
When running Trump Media's price analysis, check to measure Trump Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trump Media is operating at the current time. Most of Trump Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trump Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trump Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trump Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.