Digimarc Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

DMRC Stock  USD 6.13  0.11  1.83%   
Digimarc Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Digimarc stock prices and determine the direction of Digimarc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Digimarc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of Digimarc's share price is approaching 39 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Digimarc, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 39

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Digimarc's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Digimarc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Digimarc's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.04)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.61)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.09)
Wall Street Target Price
15
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.06)
Using Digimarc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Digimarc from the perspective of Digimarc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Digimarc using Digimarc's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Digimarc using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Digimarc's stock price.

Digimarc Implied Volatility

    
  1.41  
Digimarc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Digimarc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Digimarc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Digimarc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Digimarc's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Digimarc on the next trading day is expected to be 6.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.37.

Digimarc after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Digimarc Stock refer to our How to Trade Digimarc Stock guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Digimarc contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Digimarc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0881% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Digimarc trading at USD 6.13, that is roughly USD 0.005402 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Digimarc's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Digimarc options at the current volatility level of 1.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Digimarc Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Digimarc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Digimarc's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Digimarc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Digimarc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Digimarc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Digimarc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Digimarc. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Digimarc Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Digimarc price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Digimarc using various technical indicators. When you analyze Digimarc charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Digimarc price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Digimarc Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Digimarc on the next trading day is expected to be 6.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Digimarc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Digimarc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Digimarc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Digimarc  Digimarc Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Digimarc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Digimarc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Digimarc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.37 and 10.84, respectively. We have considered Digimarc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.13
6.11
Expected Value
10.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Digimarc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Digimarc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4344
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5471
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0711
SAESum of the absolute errors33.3729
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Digimarc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Digimarc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Digimarc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.004.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.004.73
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.6515.0016.65
Details

Digimarc After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Digimarc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Digimarc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Digimarc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Digimarc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Digimarc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Digimarc's historical news coverage. Digimarc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 4.73, respectively. We have considered Digimarc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.13
0.00
After-hype Price
4.73
Upside
Digimarc is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Digimarc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Digimarc Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Digimarc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Digimarc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Digimarc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.71 
4.73
  0.12 
  0.03 
9 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.13
0.00
0.00 
2,782  
Notes

Digimarc Hype Timeline

Digimarc is currently traded for 6.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Digimarc is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.71%. %. The volatility of related hype on Digimarc is about 12128.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.16. About 29.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Digimarc was currently reported as 1.91. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.7. Digimarc last dividend was issued on the 1st of May 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Digimarc Stock refer to our How to Trade Digimarc Stock guide.

Digimarc Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Digimarc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Digimarc's future price movements. Getting to know how Digimarc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Digimarc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
UISUnisys 0.28 9 per month 0.00 (0.14) 5.30 (4.59) 22.47 
TTECTTEC Holdings(0.08)7 per month 0.00 (0.04) 5.23 (5.51) 17.83 
ONTFON24 Inc 0.03 15 per month 1.45  0.12  4.60 (3.14) 38.78 
DVLTDatavault AI(0.15)9 per month 0.00 (0.11) 25.00 (17.34) 72.53 
GDCGD Culture Group 0.22 9 per month 6.01  0.03  11.74 (9.57) 61.15 
DUOTDuos Technologies Group(0.68)9 per month 4.12  0.03  7.81 (7.20) 23.66 
TCXTucows Inc 0.61 9 per month 2.68  0.08  5.31 (4.36) 16.41 
MEIMethode Electronics(0.05)10 per month 3.68  0.05  5.35 (4.16) 18.04 
IMMRImmersion 0.13 10 per month 2.11 (0.02) 4.57 (3.90) 22.47 
WALDWaldencast Acquisition Corp 0.08 10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 9.57 (6.49) 33.33 

Other Forecasting Options for Digimarc

For every potential investor in Digimarc, whether a beginner or expert, Digimarc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Digimarc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Digimarc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Digimarc's price trends.

Digimarc Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Digimarc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Digimarc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Digimarc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Digimarc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Digimarc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Digimarc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Digimarc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Digimarc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Digimarc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Digimarc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Digimarc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting digimarc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Digimarc

The number of cover stories for Digimarc depends on current market conditions and Digimarc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Digimarc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Digimarc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Digimarc Short Properties

Digimarc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Digimarc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Digimarc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Digimarc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Digimarc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding21.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments28.7 M
When determining whether Digimarc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Digimarc's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Digimarc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Digimarc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Digimarc Stock refer to our How to Trade Digimarc Stock guide.
You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Application Software sector continue expanding? Could Digimarc diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Digimarc. Projected growth potential of Digimarc fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Digimarc data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share
(1.70)
Revenue Per Share
1.56
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.19)
Return On Assets
(0.33)
Return On Equity
(0.66)
Understanding Digimarc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Digimarc's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Digimarc's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Digimarc's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Digimarc's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Digimarc should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Digimarc's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.