Digimarc Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| DMRC Stock | USD 5.11 0.47 8.42% |
Digimarc Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Digimarc stock prices and determine the direction of Digimarc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Digimarc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Digimarc's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Digimarc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Digimarc from the perspective of Digimarc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Digimarc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.47. Digimarc after-hype prediction price | USD 5.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections. Digimarc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Digimarc price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Digimarc using various technical indicators. When you analyze Digimarc charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Digimarc Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Digimarc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Digimarc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Digimarc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Digimarc Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Digimarc | Digimarc Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Digimarc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Digimarc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Digimarc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.21 and 9.77, respectively. We have considered Digimarc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Digimarc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Digimarc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.068 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2792 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.039 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.47 |
Predictive Modules for Digimarc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Digimarc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Digimarc After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Digimarc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Digimarc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Digimarc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Digimarc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Digimarc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Digimarc's historical news coverage. Digimarc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.95 and 10.39, respectively. We have considered Digimarc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Digimarc is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Digimarc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Digimarc Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Digimarc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Digimarc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Digimarc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 4.78 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.11 | 5.67 | 1.61 |
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Digimarc Hype Timeline
Digimarc is currently traded for 5.11. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Digimarc is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.67 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.61%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.68%. The volatility of related hype on Digimarc is about 16482.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.09. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 38.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (39.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 25.2 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections.Digimarc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Digimarc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Digimarc's future price movements. Getting to know how Digimarc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Digimarc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UIS | Unisys | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.30 | (5.47) | 14.29 | |
| TTEC | TTEC Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.30 | 0.04 | 5.23 | (5.29) | 13.38 | |
| ONTF | ON24 Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.53 | 0.16 | 4.60 | (2.15) | 39.29 | |
| DVLT | Datavault AI | (0.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 25.00 | (17.14) | 72.53 | |
| GDC | GD Culture Group | (0.21) | 9 per month | 6.32 | 0.02 | 11.74 | (9.57) | 61.15 | |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.59 | (7.61) | 28.15 | |
| TCX | Tucows Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.90 | 0.02 | 5.31 | (4.36) | 16.41 | |
| MEI | Methode Electronics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.40 | 0.14 | 5.35 | (4.16) | 18.04 | |
| IMMR | Immersion | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 3.26 | (3.90) | 22.47 | |
| WALD | Waldencast Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.51 | 0.01 | 10.14 | (8.06) | 33.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Digimarc
For every potential investor in Digimarc, whether a beginner or expert, Digimarc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Digimarc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Digimarc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Digimarc's price trends.Digimarc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Digimarc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Digimarc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Digimarc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Digimarc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Digimarc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Digimarc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Digimarc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Digimarc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 24480.42 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.02) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.92 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.29 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.41) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.47) |
Digimarc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Digimarc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Digimarc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting digimarc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.78 | |||
| Variance | 22.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Digimarc
The number of cover stories for Digimarc depends on current market conditions and Digimarc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Digimarc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Digimarc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Digimarc Short Properties
Digimarc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Digimarc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Digimarc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Digimarc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Digimarc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Digimarc to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Digimarc Stock refer to our How to Trade Digimarc Stock guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Will Application Software sector continue expanding? Could Digimarc diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Digimarc. Projected growth potential of Digimarc fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Digimarc data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Digimarc requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Digimarc's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Digimarc's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Digimarc's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Digimarc's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Digimarc should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Digimarc's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.