Darden Restaurants Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average

DRI Stock  USD 195.80  0.10  0.05%   
This 4 Period Moving Average projection for Darden Restaurants is fitted to the equity's recent daily closes. Low error metrics relative to the price level indicate the model fits recent trading behavior well. Older observations carry less weight in the current projection as the price series extends. High SAE relative to the price level signals cumulative forecast drift over the evaluation period. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Darden Restaurants at 194.52 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This forecast is one analytical input among many and should be assessed in the context of broader analysis.
The four-period moving average forecast for Darden Restaurants replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the four preceding closing prices. This smoothing window is wide enough to dampen short-term noise while still responding to recent price shifts in Darden Restaurants.

4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Darden Restaurants at 194.52 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 2.55 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 145.55 .
This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Darden Restaurants' recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This forecast for Darden Restaurants frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The model places downside around 192.80 and upside around 196.25 for the next session. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.
Market Value
195.80
192.80
194.52
Expected Value
196.25

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Darden Restaurants stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.0921
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.67
MADMean absolute deviation2.5536
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0128
SAESum of the absolute errors145.5525
The model is suited for higher-volatility price series where a two-period average would be too reactive. It does not extrapolate a trend equation, so its forecasting utility is limited to one or two periods ahead. Tighter error metrics (lower MAD/MAPE) indicate that Darden Restaurants price movement is well-captured by this smoothing window.

Other Forecasting Options for Darden Restaurants

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Darden Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Darden occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Darden Restaurants' historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move signals accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.

Darden Restaurants Related Equities

These stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space are often compared to Darden Restaurants by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Profit comparisons show whether Darden Restaurants earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Darden Restaurants across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Darden Restaurants Market Strength Events

Rate of Change and Momentum readings for Darden Restaurants measure the velocity of recent price moves rather than direction alone. These indicators add context to how recent sessions in Darden Restaurants have behaved. These indicators are most informative when viewed alongside Darden Restaurants's volume profile and volatility measures. The Price Action Indicator distills each session's open-high-low-close into a single directional score for Darden Restaurants.

Darden Restaurants Risk Indicators

Standard deviation and variance for Darden Restaurants measure total price dispersion, while semi-deviation isolates only the downside moves. Higher variance relative to sector peers signals that Darden Restaurants' price path has been less predictable over the measured period. Analyzing Darden Restaurants' risk indicators helps explain how recent moves compare with its broader trading range. A narrow gap between mean deviation and standard deviation indicates that Darden Restaurants' return distribution is relatively symmetric.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Darden Restaurants Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Darden Restaurants is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding118.4 million
Cash And Short Term Investments240 million

More Resources for Darden Stock Analysis

A baseline understanding of Darden Restaurants is formed through its financial statements and trends. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Darden Restaurants Stock: