Darden Restaurants Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| DRI Stock | USD 196.50 0.40 0.20% |
Darden Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Darden Restaurants' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, The relative strength indicator of Darden Restaurants' share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Darden Restaurants, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.118 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.5846 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.3976 | Wall Street Target Price 222.3793 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.0972 |
Using Darden Restaurants hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Darden Restaurants from the perspective of Darden Restaurants response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Darden Restaurants using Darden Restaurants' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Darden using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Darden Restaurants' stock price.
Darden Restaurants Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Darden Restaurants' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Darden. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Darden Restaurants stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 198.8165 | Short Percent 0.0766 | Short Ratio 3.24 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 188.2578 |
Darden Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Darden Restaurants on the next trading day is expected to be 195.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.86.Darden Restaurants Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Darden Restaurants' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Darden. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Darden can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Darden Restaurants. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Darden Restaurants' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Darden Restaurants.
Darden Restaurants Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Darden Restaurants' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Darden Restaurants stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Darden Restaurants' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Darden Restaurants stock will not fluctuate a lot when Darden Restaurants' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Darden Restaurants on the next trading day is expected to be 195.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.86. Darden Restaurants after-hype prediction price | USD 196.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Darden Restaurants to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Darden contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Darden Restaurants will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Darden Restaurants trading at USD 196.5, that is roughly USD 0.0381 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Darden Restaurants' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Darden Restaurants options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Darden Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Darden Restaurants' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Darden Restaurants' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Darden Restaurants stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Darden Restaurants' open interest, investors have to compare it to Darden Restaurants' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Darden Restaurants is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Darden. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Darden Restaurants Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Darden price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Darden using various technical indicators. When you analyze Darden charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Darden Restaurants Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Darden Restaurants on the next trading day is expected to be 195.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.62, mean absolute percentage error of 11.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Darden Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Darden Restaurants' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Darden Restaurants Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Darden Restaurants | Darden Restaurants Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Darden Restaurants Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Darden Restaurants' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Darden Restaurants' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 194.15 and 197.57, respectively. We have considered Darden Restaurants' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Darden Restaurants stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Darden Restaurants stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2784 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6247 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 154.8555 |
Predictive Modules for Darden Restaurants
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Darden Restaurants. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Darden Restaurants After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Darden Restaurants at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Darden Restaurants or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Darden Restaurants, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Darden Restaurants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Darden Restaurants' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Darden Restaurants' historical news coverage. Darden Restaurants' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 195.07 and 198.49, respectively. We have considered Darden Restaurants' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Darden Restaurants is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Darden Restaurants is based on 3 months time horizon.
Darden Restaurants Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Darden Restaurants is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Darden Restaurants backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Darden Restaurants, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.71 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
196.50 | 196.78 | 0.14 |
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Darden Restaurants Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Darden Restaurants is traded for 196.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Darden is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 196.78 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 105.56%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Darden Restaurants is about 159.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 196.32. The company reported the last year's revenue of 12.08 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.05 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.71 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Darden Restaurants to cross-verify your projections.Darden Restaurants Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Darden Restaurants' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Darden Restaurants' future price movements. Getting to know how Darden Restaurants' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Darden Restaurants may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | 0.50 | 10 per month | 1.03 | (0.05) | 2.13 | (1.84) | 6.22 | |
| LI | Li Auto | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.48 | (3.27) | 7.91 | |
| YUMC | Yum China Holdings | 0.47 | 11 per month | 1.16 | 0.06 | 2.76 | (1.97) | 5.51 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | (38.66) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.66 | (2.08) | 5.61 | |
| DPZ | Dominos Pizza Common | 3.34 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.68 | (2.15) | 6.97 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 13.14 | 11 per month | 1.28 | 0.11 | 2.71 | (2.29) | 16.26 | |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corp | 5.22 | 9 per month | 1.36 | 0.01 | 3.09 | (2.19) | 7.40 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 5.15 | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.04 | 3.63 | (2.83) | 7.84 | |
| IHG | InterContinental Hotels Group | (0.19) | 6 per month | 1.04 | 0.06 | 2.69 | (2.04) | 7.94 | |
| SW | Smurfit WestRock plc | 0.42 | 10 per month | 2.65 | (0.02) | 4.83 | (3.37) | 12.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Darden Restaurants
For every potential investor in Darden, whether a beginner or expert, Darden Restaurants' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Darden Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Darden. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Darden Restaurants' price trends.Darden Restaurants Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Darden Restaurants stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Darden Restaurants could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Darden Restaurants by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Darden Restaurants Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Darden Restaurants stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Darden Restaurants shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Darden Restaurants stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Darden Restaurants entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 196.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 196.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.68 |
Darden Restaurants Risk Indicators
The analysis of Darden Restaurants' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Darden Restaurants' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting darden stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Darden Restaurants
The number of cover stories for Darden Restaurants depends on current market conditions and Darden Restaurants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Darden Restaurants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Darden Restaurants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Darden Restaurants Short Properties
Darden Restaurants' future price predictability will typically decrease when Darden Restaurants' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Darden Restaurants often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Darden Restaurants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Darden Restaurants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 118.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 240 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Darden Restaurants to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Darden Stock please use our How to Invest in Darden Restaurants guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is there potential for Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure market expansion? Will Darden introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Darden Restaurants. Projected growth potential of Darden fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Darden Restaurants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.118 | Dividend Share 5.8 | Earnings Share 9.55 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.073 |
Understanding Darden Restaurants requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Darden's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Darden Restaurants' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Darden Restaurants' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Darden Restaurants' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Darden Restaurants should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Darden Restaurants' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.