Duolingo Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DUOL Stock | USD 134.06 0.00 0.00% |
Duolingo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Duolingo's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Duolingo's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Duolingo fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Duolingo's share price is below 30 as of now suggesting that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Duolingo, making its price go up or down. Momentum 27
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11.143 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.7267 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.8971 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.9112 | Wall Street Target Price 252.1659 |
Using Duolingo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Duolingo from the perspective of Duolingo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Duolingo using Duolingo's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Duolingo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Duolingo's stock price.
Duolingo Short Interest
An investor who is long Duolingo may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Duolingo and may potentially protect profits, hedge Duolingo with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 320.3773 | Short Percent 0.2079 | Short Ratio 4.5 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.4 M | 50 Day MA 176.4393 |
Duolingo Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duolingo on the next trading day is expected to be 134.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 321.27.Duolingo Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Duolingo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Duolingo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Duolingo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Duolingo. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Duolingo's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Duolingo.
Duolingo Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
Duolingo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Duolingo stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Duolingo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Duolingo stock will not fluctuate a lot when Duolingo's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duolingo on the next trading day is expected to be 134.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 321.27. Duolingo after-hype prediction price | USD 142.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duolingo to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Duolingo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Duolingo will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Duolingo trading at USD 134.06, that is roughly USD 0.0637 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Duolingo's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Duolingo options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Duolingo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Duolingo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Duolingo's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Duolingo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Duolingo's open interest, investors have to compare it to Duolingo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Duolingo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Duolingo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Duolingo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Duolingo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Duolingo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Duolingo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Duolingo Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duolingo on the next trading day is expected to be 134.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.27, mean absolute percentage error of 101.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 321.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duolingo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duolingo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Duolingo Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Duolingo | Duolingo Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Duolingo Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Duolingo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Duolingo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 129.71 and 138.41, respectively. We have considered Duolingo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duolingo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duolingo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.7256 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.1454 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.2667 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0292 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 321.27 |
Predictive Modules for Duolingo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duolingo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Duolingo After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Duolingo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Duolingo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Duolingo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Duolingo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Duolingo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Duolingo's historical news coverage. Duolingo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 138.44 and 147.16, respectively. We have considered Duolingo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Duolingo is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Duolingo is based on 3 months time horizon.
Duolingo Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Duolingo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Duolingo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Duolingo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.01 | 4.35 | 3.84 | 0.97 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
134.06 | 142.80 | 0.00 |
|
Duolingo Hype Timeline
Duolingo is currently traded for 134.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.84, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.97. Duolingo is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 114.47%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Duolingo is about 450.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 133.09. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.94. Duolingo had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duolingo to cross-verify your projections.Duolingo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Duolingo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Duolingo's future price movements. Getting to know how Duolingo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Duolingo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QXO | QXO Inc | 0.52 | 11 per month | 2.42 | 0.09 | 5.47 | (3.95) | 22.99 | |
| GTM | ZoomInfo Technologies | 0.21 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.11 | (5.51) | 16.16 | |
| MANH | Manhattan Associates | 1.90 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.51 | (4.10) | 8.34 | |
| PEGA | Pegasystems | (3.19) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 4.17 | (5.59) | 11.55 | |
| PCOR | Procore Technologies | 0.64 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.53 | (4.01) | 16.14 | |
| DAY | Dayforce | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 0.29 | (0.20) | 0.67 | |
| PAYC | Paycom Software | (2.59) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 2.32 | (3.80) | 11.72 | |
| IDCC | InterDigital | (7.33) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.53 | (4.57) | 17.55 | |
| SAIL | SailPoint Common Stock | 0.34 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.80 | (6.33) | 12.06 | |
| BSY | Bentley Systems | (0.11) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.39) | 2.05 | (3.09) | 7.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for Duolingo
For every potential investor in Duolingo, whether a beginner or expert, Duolingo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Duolingo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Duolingo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Duolingo's price trends.Duolingo Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Duolingo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Duolingo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Duolingo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Duolingo Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duolingo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duolingo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duolingo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duolingo entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 97065.6 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 136.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 135.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.41) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 27.13 |
Duolingo Risk Indicators
The analysis of Duolingo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duolingo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting duolingo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.29 | |||
| Variance | 18.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Duolingo
The number of cover stories for Duolingo depends on current market conditions and Duolingo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Duolingo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Duolingo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Duolingo Short Properties
Duolingo's future price predictability will typically decrease when Duolingo's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Duolingo often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Duolingo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Duolingo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 877.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duolingo to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Duolingo Stock please use our How to buy in Duolingo Stock guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Duolingo. Projected growth potential of Duolingo fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Duolingo assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11.143 | Earnings Share 7.94 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.411 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Duolingo using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Duolingo's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Duolingo's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Duolingo's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Duolingo should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Duolingo's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.