Pegasystems Stock Price Prediction

PEGA Stock  USD 49.80  0.95  1.87%   
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Pegasystems' share price is approaching 45 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pegasystems, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 45

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Pegasystems' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Pegasystems, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Pegasystems' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.378
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.7493
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.0814
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.2271
Wall Street Target Price
73.9091
Using Pegasystems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pegasystems from the perspective of Pegasystems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Pegasystems using Pegasystems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Pegasystems using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Pegasystems' stock price.

Pegasystems Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Pegasystems' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Pegasystems. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Pegasystems stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
53.7219
Short Percent
0.0692
Short Ratio
5.77
Shares Short Prior Month
5.5 M
50 Day MA
57.277

Pegasystems Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Pegasystems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Pegasystems. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Pegasystems can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Pegasystems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Pegasystems' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Pegasystems.

Pegasystems Implied Volatility

    
  0.6  
Pegasystems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Pegasystems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Pegasystems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Pegasystems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Pegasystems' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Pegasystems to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Pegasystems because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Pegasystems after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 50.99  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Pegasystems contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Pegasystems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0375% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Pegasystems trading at USD 49.8, that is roughly USD 0.0187 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Pegasystems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Pegasystems options at the current volatility level of 0.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Pegasystems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Pegasystems Stock refer to our How to Trade Pegasystems Stock guide.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.6862.0864.54
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
47.6850.1452.60
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
67.2673.9182.04
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.500.520.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pegasystems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pegasystems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pegasystems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pegasystems.

Pegasystems After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Pegasystems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pegasystems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pegasystems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Pegasystems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Pegasystems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pegasystems' historical news coverage. Pegasystems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 48.53 and 53.45, respectively. We have considered Pegasystems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
49.80
50.99
After-hype Price
53.45
Upside
Pegasystems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pegasystems is based on 3 months time horizon.

Pegasystems Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pegasystems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pegasystems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pegasystems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.36 
2.47
  0.34 
  0.41 
12 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 12 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
49.80
50.99
0.47 
260.00  
Notes

Pegasystems Hype Timeline

Pegasystems is at this time traded for 49.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.41. Pegasystems is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 50.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.47%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Pegasystems is about 214.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.21. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.5 B. Net Income was 99.19 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.31 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days.
Check out Pegasystems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Pegasystems Stock refer to our How to Trade Pegasystems Stock guide.

Pegasystems Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Pegasystems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pegasystems' future price movements. Getting to know how Pegasystems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pegasystems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MANHManhattan Associates 3.56 11 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.51 (4.09) 7.48 
GTMZoomInfo Technologies(0.20)11 per month 0.00 (0.14) 4.11 (4.63) 16.16 
PAYCPaycom Software(0.67)9 per month 0.00 (0.27) 2.32 (3.50) 11.72 
IDCCInterDigital 9.07 12 per month 0.00 (0.07) 3.53 (4.57) 17.55 
OTEXOpen Text Corp 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.33) 1.45 (3.91) 7.58 
APPFAppfolio 5.05 9 per month 0.00 (0.10) 3.09 (3.72) 12.22 
AKAMAkamai Technologies 1.70 12 per month 1.64  0.13  4.01 (3.43) 18.87 
DAYDayforce(0.03)12 per month 0.00 (0.40) 0.29 (0.16) 0.67 
QXOQXO Inc 0.10 10 per month 2.61  0.08  5.47 (4.84) 22.99 
MNDYMondayCom(7.11)8 per month 0.00 (0.22) 3.19 (6.07) 17.07 

Pegasystems Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Pegasystems price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pegasystems using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pegasystems charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Pegasystems Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Pegasystems stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Pegasystems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Pegasystems based on analysis of Pegasystems hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Pegasystems's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Pegasystems's related companies.
 2023 2024 2025 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0024520.0012830.001476
Price To Sales Ratio2.845.316.1

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Complementary Tools for Pegasystems Stock analysis

When running Pegasystems' price analysis, check to measure Pegasystems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pegasystems is operating at the current time. Most of Pegasystems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pegasystems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pegasystems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pegasystems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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