GrafTech International Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EAF Stock | USD 17.33 0.50 2.80% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GrafTech International on the next trading day is expected to be 17.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.86. GrafTech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GrafTech International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of GrafTech International's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.08) | EPS Estimate Current Year (4.94) | EPS Estimate Next Year (3.26) | Wall Street Target Price 14.75 |
Using GrafTech International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GrafTech International from the perspective of GrafTech International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards GrafTech International using GrafTech International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards GrafTech using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of GrafTech International's stock price.
GrafTech International Implied Volatility | 1.09 |
GrafTech International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of GrafTech International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if GrafTech International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that GrafTech International stock will not fluctuate a lot when GrafTech International's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GrafTech International on the next trading day is expected to be 17.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.86. GrafTech International after-hype prediction price | USD 17.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GrafTech International to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current GrafTech contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that GrafTech International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0681% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With GrafTech International trading at USD 17.33, that is roughly USD 0.0118 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating GrafTech International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring GrafTech International options at the current volatility level of 1.09%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 GrafTech Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast GrafTech International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in GrafTech International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for GrafTech International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current GrafTech International's open interest, investors have to compare it to GrafTech International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of GrafTech International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in GrafTech. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
GrafTech International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GrafTech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GrafTech using various technical indicators. When you analyze GrafTech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GrafTech International Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GrafTech International on the next trading day is expected to be 17.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GrafTech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GrafTech International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GrafTech International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GrafTech International | GrafTech International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GrafTech International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GrafTech International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GrafTech International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.12 and 21.54, respectively. We have considered GrafTech International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GrafTech International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GrafTech International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3575 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.064 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5143 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0342 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.86 |
Predictive Modules for GrafTech International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GrafTech International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GrafTech International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GrafTech International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GrafTech International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GrafTech International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GrafTech International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GrafTech International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GrafTech International's historical news coverage. GrafTech International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.08 and 21.58, respectively. We have considered GrafTech International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GrafTech International is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GrafTech International is based on 3 months time horizon.
GrafTech International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GrafTech International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GrafTech International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GrafTech International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 4.21 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 26 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 26 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.33 | 17.33 | 0.00 |
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GrafTech International Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January GrafTech International is traded for 17.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. GrafTech is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. %. The volatility of related hype on GrafTech International is about 3792.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.38. About 37.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 7.9. GrafTech International last dividend was issued on the 30th of May 2023. The entity had 1:10 split on the 29th of August 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 26 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GrafTech International to cross-verify your projections.GrafTech International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GrafTech International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GrafTech International's future price movements. Getting to know how GrafTech International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GrafTech International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PLUG | Plug Power | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.91 | (8.36) | 19.12 | |
| HAYW | Hayward Holdings | (0.10) | 10 per month | 1.12 | 0.02 | 2.91 | (2.18) | 14.48 | |
| EOSE | Eos Energy Enterprises | 0.07 | 26 per month | 5.53 | 0.05 | 11.94 | (9.57) | 31.35 | |
| FLY | Firefly Aerospace Common | 1.66 | 9 per month | 6.54 | 0.04 | 12.30 | (12.87) | 36.50 | |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | (0.26) | 9 per month | 1.45 | (0.05) | 2.18 | (2.19) | 7.06 | |
| AMPX | Amprius Technologies | 1.46 | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.55 | (9.76) | 29.24 | |
| SEB | Seaboard | (2.38) | 11 per month | 1.43 | 0.23 | 3.16 | (3.19) | 10.07 | |
| MYRG | MYR Group | 1.50 | 15 per month | 2.51 | 0.07 | 4.75 | (5.30) | 12.05 | |
| BRC | Brady | (0.73) | 14 per month | 1.01 | 0.07 | 2.35 | (1.89) | 5.12 | |
| SPR | Spirit Aerosystems Holdings | (0.13) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.29 | (3.30) | 7.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for GrafTech International
For every potential investor in GrafTech, whether a beginner or expert, GrafTech International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GrafTech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GrafTech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GrafTech International's price trends.GrafTech International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GrafTech International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GrafTech International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GrafTech International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GrafTech International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GrafTech International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GrafTech International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GrafTech International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GrafTech International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
GrafTech International Risk Indicators
The analysis of GrafTech International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GrafTech International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting graftech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.9 | |||
| Variance | 24.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 30.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 29.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GrafTech International
The number of cover stories for GrafTech International depends on current market conditions and GrafTech International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GrafTech International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GrafTech International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GrafTech International Short Properties
GrafTech International's future price predictability will typically decrease when GrafTech International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GrafTech International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GrafTech International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GrafTech International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 257.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 256.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GrafTech International to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in GrafTech Stock please use our How to Invest in GrafTech International guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Electrical Components & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GrafTech International. If investors know GrafTech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GrafTech International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | Earnings Share (7.90) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.102 | Return On Assets |
The market value of GrafTech International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GrafTech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GrafTech International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GrafTech International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GrafTech International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GrafTech International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GrafTech International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GrafTech International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GrafTech International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.