ECARX Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ECX Stock | 2.08 0.02 0.95% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ECARX Holdings Class on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78. ECARX Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of ECARX Holdings' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.10) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1195 | Wall Street Target Price 3.635 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.109 |
Using ECARX Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ECARX Holdings Class from the perspective of ECARX Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
ECARX Holdings Class Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ECARX Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ECARX. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ECARX can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ECARX Holdings Class. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ECARX Holdings Class on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78.
ECARX Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 2.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ECARX Holdings to cross-verify your projections. ECARX Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ECARX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ECARX using various technical indicators. When you analyze ECARX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the ECARX Holdings' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 291.6 M | Current Value 418.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 203.5 M |
ECARX Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ECARX Holdings Class on the next trading day is expected to be 2.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ECARX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ECARX Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ECARX Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ECARX Holdings | ECARX Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ECARX Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ECARX Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ECARX Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.94, respectively. We have considered ECARX Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ECARX Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ECARX Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9434 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0948 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0491 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.784 |
Predictive Modules for ECARX Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ECARX Holdings Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ECARX Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ECARX Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ECARX Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ECARX Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ECARX Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ECARX Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ECARX Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ECARX Holdings' historical news coverage. ECARX Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 7.71, respectively. We have considered ECARX Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ECARX Holdings is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ECARX Holdings Class is based on 3 months time horizon.
ECARX Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ECARX Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ECARX Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ECARX Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 5.62 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.08 | 2.09 | 0.48 |
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ECARX Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January ECARX Holdings Class is traded for 2.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. ECARX is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.09. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.48%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on ECARX Holdings is about 942.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.10. About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.21. ECARX Holdings Class had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:1 split on the 21st of December 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ECARX Holdings to cross-verify your projections.ECARX Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ECARX Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ECARX Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how ECARX Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ECARX Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SES | SES AI Corp | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.80 | (8.37) | 26.80 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | 2.72 | 7 per month | 6.13 | 0.04 | 16.00 | (9.47) | 42.23 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | 0.62 | 10 per month | 1.64 | (0.04) | 3.07 | (2.25) | 7.22 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | 0.73 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.90 | (5.07) | 28.69 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | 1.24 | 10 per month | 4.92 | (0.01) | 7.93 | (4.68) | 34.59 | |
| CWH | Camping World Holdings | (0.03) | 11 per month | 4.87 | 0.0001 | 6.54 | (6.47) | 28.90 | |
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | (0.12) | 11 per month | 2.15 | 0.17 | 6.86 | (4.01) | 12.66 | |
| XPEL | Xpel Inc | 0.36 | 10 per month | 1.34 | 0.28 | 4.45 | (2.59) | 11.45 | |
| SG | Sweetgreen | 0.54 | 10 per month | 4.06 | (0.02) | 5.99 | (6.54) | 23.70 | |
| SABR | Sabre Corpo | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.06 | (7.73) | 24.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for ECARX Holdings
For every potential investor in ECARX, whether a beginner or expert, ECARX Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ECARX Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ECARX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ECARX Holdings' price trends.ECARX Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ECARX Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ECARX Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ECARX Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ECARX Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ECARX Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ECARX Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ECARX Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ECARX Holdings Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 415808.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.14) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
ECARX Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of ECARX Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ECARX Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ecarx stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.51 | |||
| Variance | 30.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 41.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 32.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ECARX Holdings
The number of cover stories for ECARX Holdings depends on current market conditions and ECARX Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ECARX Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ECARX Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ECARX Holdings Short Properties
ECARX Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when ECARX Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ECARX Holdings Class often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ECARX Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ECARX Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 336.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 454.6 M |
Additional Tools for ECARX Stock Analysis
When running ECARX Holdings' price analysis, check to measure ECARX Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ECARX Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of ECARX Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ECARX Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ECARX Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ECARX Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.