Elme Communities Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| ELME Stock | USD 2.21 0.02 0.91% |
Elme Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Elme Communities stock prices and determine the direction of Elme Communities's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Elme Communities' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Elme Communities' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 9
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.11) | Wall Street Target Price 18 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.03) |
Using Elme Communities hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Elme Communities from the perspective of Elme Communities response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Elme Communities using Elme Communities' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Elme using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Elme Communities' stock price.
Elme Communities Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Elme Communities' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Elme. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Elme Communities stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 15.4226 | Short Percent 0.0503 | Short Ratio 0.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.9 M | 50 Day MA 12.6234 |
Elme Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Elme Communities on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.40.Elme Communities Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Elme Communities' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Elme. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Elme can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Elme Communities. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Elme Communities' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Elme Communities.
Elme Communities Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Elme Communities' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Elme Communities stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Elme Communities' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Elme Communities stock will not fluctuate a lot when Elme Communities' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Elme Communities on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.40. Elme Communities after-hype prediction price | USD 2.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elme Communities to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Elme contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Elme Communities will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Elme Communities trading at USD 2.21, that is roughly USD 8.98E-4 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Elme Communities' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Elme Communities options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Elme Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Elme Communities' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Elme Communities' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Elme Communities stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Elme Communities' open interest, investors have to compare it to Elme Communities' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Elme Communities is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Elme. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Elme Communities Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Elme price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Elme using various technical indicators. When you analyze Elme charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Elme Communities Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Elme Communities on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 4.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elme Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elme Communities' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elme Communities Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elme Communities | Elme Communities Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Elme Communities Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elme Communities' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elme Communities' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 13.59, respectively. We have considered Elme Communities' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elme Communities stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elme Communities stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.937 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3659 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4644 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1476 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.4 |
Predictive Modules for Elme Communities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elme Communities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Elme Communities After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Elme Communities at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Elme Communities or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Elme Communities, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Elme Communities Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Elme Communities' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Elme Communities' historical news coverage. Elme Communities' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 13.52, respectively. We have considered Elme Communities' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Elme Communities is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Elme Communities is based on 3 months time horizon.
Elme Communities Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Elme Communities is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Elme Communities backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Elme Communities, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.65 | 11.39 | 0.08 | 0.35 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.21 | 2.13 | 3.62 |
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Elme Communities Hype Timeline
Elme Communities is currently traded for 2.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.35. Elme is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.13. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.62%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.65%. The volatility of related hype on Elme Communities is about 5398.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.56. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.21. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Elme Communities recorded a loss per share of 1.53. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of January 2026. The firm had 3:2 split on the 1st of June 1992. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elme Communities to cross-verify your projections.Elme Communities Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Elme Communities' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Elme Communities' future price movements. Getting to know how Elme Communities' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Elme Communities may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PGRE | Paramount Group | (0.02) | 31 per month | 0.08 | (0.21) | 0.31 | (0.31) | 0.92 | |
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | (0.11) | 10 per month | 1.49 | 0.06 | 2.13 | (1.95) | 8.30 | |
| JBGS | JBG SMITH Properties | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.97 | (2.81) | 6.30 | |
| EPR | EPR Properties | 0.61 | 10 per month | 1.58 | 0.01 | 2.02 | (1.77) | 6.04 | |
| TRTX | TPG RE Finance | 0.03 | 7 per month | 1.25 | 0.02 | 1.54 | (1.67) | 6.77 | |
| IIPR | Innovative Industrial Properties | 1.73 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.46 | (3.84) | 14.66 | |
| UNIT | Uniti Group | (0.06) | 8 per month | 2.39 | 0.14 | 6.42 | (3.23) | 16.92 | |
| PDM | Piedmont Office Realty | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.42 | (3.04) | 7.03 | |
| GTY | Getty Realty | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.88 | 0.05 | 1.93 | (1.48) | 4.47 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.28 | (1.71) | 8.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for Elme Communities
For every potential investor in Elme, whether a beginner or expert, Elme Communities' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elme Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elme. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elme Communities' price trends.Elme Communities Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elme Communities stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elme Communities could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elme Communities by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elme Communities Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elme Communities stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elme Communities shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elme Communities stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elme Communities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Elme Communities Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elme Communities' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elme Communities' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elme stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.86 | |||
| Variance | 117.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Elme Communities
The number of cover stories for Elme Communities depends on current market conditions and Elme Communities' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Elme Communities is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Elme Communities' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Elme Communities Short Properties
Elme Communities' future price predictability will typically decrease when Elme Communities' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Elme Communities often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Elme Communities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Elme Communities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 87.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elme Communities to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Elme Stock refer to our How to Trade Elme Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Will Multi-Family Residential REITs sector continue expanding? Could Elme diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elme Communities. Projected growth potential of Elme fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Elme Communities data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share (1.53) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 | Return On Assets |
Elme Communities's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Elme's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Elme Communities' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Elme Communities' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Elme Communities' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Elme Communities should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Elme Communities' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.