Embraer SA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EMBJ Stock | 70.14 3.13 4.27% |
Embraer Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Embraer SA's share price is at 50 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Embraer SA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Embraer SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Embraer SA from the perspective of Embraer SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Embraer SA on the next trading day is expected to be 70.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.16. Embraer SA after-hype prediction price | USD 71.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Embraer SA to cross-verify your projections. Embraer SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Embraer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Embraer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Embraer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Embraer SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Embraer SA on the next trading day is expected to be 70.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09, mean absolute percentage error of 1.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Embraer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Embraer SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Embraer SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Embraer SA | Embraer SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Embraer SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Embraer SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Embraer SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 68.14 and 72.14, respectively. We have considered Embraer SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Embraer SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Embraer SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9122 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.107 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.086 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.16 |
Predictive Modules for Embraer SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Embraer SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Embraer SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Embraer SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Embraer SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Embraer SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Embraer SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Embraer SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Embraer SA's historical news coverage. Embraer SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 69.28 and 73.16, respectively. We have considered Embraer SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Embraer SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Embraer SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Embraer SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Embraer SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Embraer SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Embraer SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
70.14 | 71.22 | 0.43 |
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Embraer SA Hype Timeline
Embraer SA is currently traded for 70.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Embraer is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 71.22. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.43%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Embraer SA is about 1408.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 70.16. About 50.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Embraer SA was currently reported as 4.99. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of May 2026. Embraer SA had 571:500 split on the 1st of March 2002. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Embraer SA to cross-verify your projections.Embraer SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Embraer SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Embraer SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Embraer SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Embraer SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | (5.59) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.17 | 3.93 | (2.92) | 8.60 | |
| DRS | Leonardo DRS Common | (0.24) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.04 | 3.77 | (2.63) | 9.17 | |
| TXT | Textron | (0.72) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.1 | 2.31 | (1.64) | 11.43 | |
| BLD | Topbuild Corp | (1.51) | 11 per month | 1.69 | 0.09 | 4.50 | (3.27) | 10.98 | |
| KRMN | Karman Holdings | 2.22 | 10 per month | 3.51 | 0.1 | 8.60 | (5.87) | 16.85 | |
| STRL | Sterling Construction | 8.96 | 9 per month | 4.60 | (0.01) | 5.34 | (6.91) | 21.66 | |
| CAE | CAE Inc | 0.29 | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0.06 | 3.17 | (2.58) | 9.61 | |
| AYI | Acuity Brands | (2.94) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.46 | (2.66) | 16.54 | |
| CR | Crane Company | (0.70) | 4 per month | 2.46 | (0.03) | 2.36 | (2.32) | 15.15 | |
| STN | Stantec | 1.65 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.96 | (2.27) | 8.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Embraer SA
For every potential investor in Embraer, whether a beginner or expert, Embraer SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Embraer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Embraer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Embraer SA's price trends.Embraer SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Embraer SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Embraer SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Embraer SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Embraer SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Embraer SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Embraer SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Embraer SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Embraer SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 78519.54 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.74) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 70.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 70.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.13) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 50.2 |
Embraer SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Embraer SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Embraer SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting embraer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Variance | 4.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Embraer SA
The number of cover stories for Embraer SA depends on current market conditions and Embraer SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Embraer SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Embraer SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Embraer SA Short Properties
Embraer SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Embraer SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Embraer SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Embraer SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Embraer SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 183.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Embraer SA to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Embraer Stock please use our How to buy in Embraer Stock guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
What growth prospects exist in Aerospace & Defense sector? Can Embraer capture new markets? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Embraer SA. Projected growth potential of Embraer fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Valuation analysis balances hard financial data with qualitative growth assessments. While each Embraer SA valuation metric matters, prioritizing which indicators carry greater predictive weight remains essential.
Embraer SA's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Embraer's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Embraer SA's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investment professionals apply varied valuation frameworks to compute inherent worth and acquire positions when market prices trade at discounts to calculated value. Since Embraer SA's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Embraer SA's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Embraer SA should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Embraer SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.