EMCOR Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EME Stock | USD 706.87 12.66 1.82% |
EMCOR Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast EMCOR stock prices and determine the direction of EMCOR Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of EMCOR's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength momentum indicator of EMCOR's share price is at 54 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling EMCOR, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.133 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 6.655 | EPS Estimate Current Year 25.3633 | EPS Estimate Next Year 27.735 | Wall Street Target Price 758.5 |
Using EMCOR hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of EMCOR Group from the perspective of EMCOR response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards EMCOR using EMCOR's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards EMCOR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of EMCOR's stock price.
EMCOR Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in EMCOR's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards EMCOR. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of EMCOR stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 579.2875 | Short Percent 0.0228 | Short Ratio 2.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 898.1 K | 50 Day MA 632.8908 |
EMCOR Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EMCOR Group on the next trading day is expected to be 706.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 714.05.EMCOR Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to EMCOR's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in EMCOR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding EMCOR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around EMCOR Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of EMCOR's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about EMCOR.
EMCOR Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
EMCOR's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of EMCOR Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if EMCOR's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that EMCOR stock will not fluctuate a lot when EMCOR's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EMCOR Group on the next trading day is expected to be 706.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 714.05. EMCOR after-hype prediction price | USD 706.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EMCOR to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current EMCOR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that EMCOR Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0288% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With EMCOR trading at USD 706.87, that is roughly USD 0.2 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating EMCOR's daily price movement you should consider acquiring EMCOR Group options at the current volatility level of 0.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 EMCOR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast EMCOR's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in EMCOR's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for EMCOR stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current EMCOR's open interest, investors have to compare it to EMCOR's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of EMCOR is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in EMCOR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
EMCOR Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine EMCOR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for EMCOR using various technical indicators. When you analyze EMCOR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
EMCOR Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of EMCOR Group on the next trading day is expected to be 706.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.90, mean absolute percentage error of 432.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 714.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EMCOR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EMCOR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EMCOR Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EMCOR | EMCOR Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
EMCOR Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting EMCOR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EMCOR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 703.43 and 709.43, respectively. We have considered EMCOR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EMCOR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EMCOR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.3416 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.4626 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 11.9008 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 714.0492 |
Predictive Modules for EMCOR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EMCOR Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.EMCOR After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of EMCOR at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in EMCOR or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of EMCOR, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
EMCOR Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting EMCOR's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on EMCOR's historical news coverage. EMCOR's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 703.86 and 709.88, respectively. We have considered EMCOR's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
EMCOR is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of EMCOR Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
EMCOR Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as EMCOR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading EMCOR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with EMCOR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 3.00 | 1.03 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
706.87 | 706.87 | 0.00 |
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EMCOR Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January EMCOR Group is traded for 706.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. EMCOR is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 31.95%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on EMCOR is about 582.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 706.93. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.32. EMCOR Group recorded earning per share (EPS) of 24.81. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of January 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of July 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EMCOR to cross-verify your projections.EMCOR Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to EMCOR's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict EMCOR's future price movements. Getting to know how EMCOR's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how EMCOR may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | (11.94) | 8 per month | 3.09 | 0.12 | 5.70 | (5.84) | 27.74 | |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics | (2.11) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.00 | (1.49) | 11.14 | |
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight | 2.34 | 6 per month | 1.48 | 0.10 | 4.94 | (2.41) | 10.14 | |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings | (2.11) | 8 per month | 2.37 | 0.02 | 4.44 | (3.91) | 11.82 | |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand | 3.24 | 15 per month | 1.42 | 0.04 | 3.32 | (2.52) | 8.77 | |
| HUBB | Hubbell | 14.12 | 8 per month | 1.64 | 0.06 | 3.55 | (2.91) | 8.35 | |
| VLTO | Veralto | 0.46 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.43 | (1.70) | 8.53 | |
| ACM | Aecom Technology | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.52 | (3.01) | 12.88 | |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab USA | (2.11) | 25 per month | 5.07 | 0.07 | 10.40 | (9.47) | 26.15 | |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake | 3.24 | 18 per month | 1.04 | 0.13 | 2.58 | (1.96) | 4.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for EMCOR
For every potential investor in EMCOR, whether a beginner or expert, EMCOR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EMCOR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EMCOR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EMCOR's price trends.EMCOR Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EMCOR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EMCOR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EMCOR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EMCOR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EMCOR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EMCOR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EMCOR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EMCOR Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
EMCOR Risk Indicators
The analysis of EMCOR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EMCOR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting emcor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.14 | |||
| Variance | 9.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for EMCOR
The number of cover stories for EMCOR depends on current market conditions and EMCOR's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that EMCOR is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about EMCOR's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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EMCOR Short Properties
EMCOR's future price predictability will typically decrease when EMCOR's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of EMCOR Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential EMCOR's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. EMCOR's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EMCOR to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of EMCOR. If investors know EMCOR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about EMCOR listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.133 | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 24.81 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.164 |
The market value of EMCOR Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of EMCOR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of EMCOR's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is EMCOR's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because EMCOR's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect EMCOR's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between EMCOR's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if EMCOR is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, EMCOR's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.