Eastman Chemical Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| EMN Stock | USD 71.48 2.16 3.12% |
Eastman Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Eastman Chemical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Eastman Chemical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Eastman Chemical fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Eastman Chemical's stock price is about 63 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Eastman, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
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Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2751 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.8127 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.831 | Wall Street Target Price 75.8125 |
Using Eastman Chemical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Eastman Chemical from the perspective of Eastman Chemical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Eastman Chemical using Eastman Chemical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Eastman using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Eastman Chemical's stock price.
Eastman Chemical Short Interest
An investor who is long Eastman Chemical may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Eastman Chemical and may potentially protect profits, hedge Eastman Chemical with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 69.266 | Short Percent 0.0425 | Short Ratio 2.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.1 M | 50 Day MA 64.4838 |
Eastman Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eastman Chemical on the next trading day is expected to be 71.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.85.Eastman Chemical Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Eastman Chemical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Eastman. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Eastman can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Eastman Chemical. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Eastman Chemical's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Eastman Chemical.
Eastman Chemical Implied Volatility | 0.59 |
Eastman Chemical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Eastman Chemical stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Eastman Chemical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Eastman Chemical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Eastman Chemical's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eastman Chemical on the next trading day is expected to be 71.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.85. Eastman Chemical after-hype prediction price | USD 71.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastman Chemical to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Eastman contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Eastman Chemical will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0369% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Eastman Chemical trading at USD 71.48, that is roughly USD 0.0264 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Eastman Chemical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Eastman Chemical options at the current volatility level of 0.59%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Eastman Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Eastman Chemical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Eastman Chemical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Eastman Chemical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Eastman Chemical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Eastman Chemical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Eastman Chemical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Eastman. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Eastman Chemical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Eastman price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Eastman using various technical indicators. When you analyze Eastman charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Eastman Chemical Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Eastman Chemical on the next trading day is expected to be 71.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Eastman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Eastman Chemical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Eastman Chemical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Eastman Chemical | Eastman Chemical Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Eastman Chemical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Eastman Chemical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Eastman Chemical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69.33 and 73.52, respectively. We have considered Eastman Chemical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Eastman Chemical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Eastman Chemical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8066 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.219 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9474 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.8461 |
Predictive Modules for Eastman Chemical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Eastman Chemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Eastman Chemical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Eastman Chemical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Eastman Chemical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Eastman Chemical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Eastman Chemical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Eastman Chemical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Eastman Chemical's historical news coverage. Eastman Chemical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 69.49 and 73.69, respectively. We have considered Eastman Chemical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Eastman Chemical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Eastman Chemical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Eastman Chemical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Eastman Chemical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Eastman Chemical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Eastman Chemical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 2.10 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
71.48 | 71.59 | 0.15 |
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Eastman Chemical Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Eastman Chemical is traded for 71.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Eastman is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 71.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Eastman Chemical is about 517.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 71.36. The company reported the last year's revenue of 8.75 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 474 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.85 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastman Chemical to cross-verify your projections.Eastman Chemical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Eastman Chemical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Eastman Chemical's future price movements. Getting to know how Eastman Chemical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Eastman Chemical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ESI | Element Solutions | (0.12) | 8 per month | 1.73 | 0.05 | 3.96 | (3.60) | 10.60 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | 0.35 | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.09 | 2.69 | (2.53) | 7.97 | |
| NEU | NewMarket | (2.32) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.25 | (2.77) | 11.14 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | (0.80) | 8 per month | 3.31 | 0.18 | 5.49 | (5.22) | 28.42 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | (1.25) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.89 | (3.07) | 10.51 | |
| TX | Ternium SA ADR | 0.84 | 10 per month | 1.50 | 0.11 | 2.72 | (2.99) | 7.28 | |
| GGB | Gerdau SA ADR | 0.01 | 5 per month | 1.73 | 0.16 | 3.56 | (2.95) | 11.29 | |
| SSL | Sasol | (0.14) | 10 per month | 3.30 | 0.05 | 5.23 | (4.81) | 18.92 | |
| BCPC | Balchem | (1.28) | 7 per month | 0.83 | 0.08 | 3.26 | (1.53) | 7.13 | |
| CBT | Cabot | 0.65 | 11 per month | 1.91 | 0.01 | 3.72 | (2.71) | 8.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Eastman Chemical
For every potential investor in Eastman, whether a beginner or expert, Eastman Chemical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Eastman Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Eastman. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Eastman Chemical's price trends.Eastman Chemical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Eastman Chemical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Eastman Chemical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Eastman Chemical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Eastman Chemical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Eastman Chemical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Eastman Chemical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Eastman Chemical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Eastman Chemical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Eastman Chemical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Eastman Chemical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Eastman Chemical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting eastman stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Eastman Chemical
The number of cover stories for Eastman Chemical depends on current market conditions and Eastman Chemical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Eastman Chemical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Eastman Chemical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Eastman Chemical to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Eastman Stock, please use our How to Invest in Eastman Chemical guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Will Diversified Chemicals sector continue expanding? Could Eastman diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Eastman Chemical. Projected growth potential of Eastman fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Eastman Chemical data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.67) | Dividend Share 3.33 | Earnings Share 4.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
Eastman Chemical's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Eastman's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Eastman Chemical's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Eastman Chemical's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Eastman Chemical's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Eastman Chemical should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Eastman Chemical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.