Empire Petroleum Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| EP Stock | USD 3.02 0.17 5.96% |
Empire Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Empire Petroleum's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Empire Petroleum's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Empire Petroleum fundamentals over time.
As of today, the value of relative strength index of Empire Petroleum's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Empire Petroleum, making its price go up or down. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) |
Using Empire Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Empire Petroleum Corp from the perspective of Empire Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Empire Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.68. Empire Petroleum after-hype prediction price | USD 3.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire Petroleum to cross-verify your projections. Empire Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Empire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Empire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Empire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Empire Petroleum Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Empire Petroleum Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Empire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Empire Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Empire Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Empire Petroleum | Empire Petroleum Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Empire Petroleum Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Empire Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Empire Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.71, respectively. We have considered Empire Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Empire Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Empire Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.073 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1095 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0355 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.6796 |
Predictive Modules for Empire Petroleum
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Empire Petroleum Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Empire Petroleum After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Empire Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Empire Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Empire Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Empire Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Empire Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Empire Petroleum's historical news coverage. Empire Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 7.71, respectively. We have considered Empire Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Empire Petroleum is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Empire Petroleum Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Empire Petroleum Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Empire Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Empire Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Empire Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 4.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.02 | 3.02 | 0.00 |
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Empire Petroleum Hype Timeline
As of February 2, 2026 Empire Petroleum Corp is listed for 3.02. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Empire is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Empire Petroleum is about 6742.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.02. About 57.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.85. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Empire Petroleum Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.79. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.55. The firm last dividend was issued on the March 1, 2012. Empire Petroleum had 1:4 split on the 8th of March 2022. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Empire Petroleum to cross-verify your projections.Empire Petroleum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Empire Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Empire Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Empire Petroleum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Empire Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MMLP | Martin Midstream Partners | 0.31 | 4 per month | 2.68 | 0.03 | 6.23 | (4.27) | 19.56 | |
| IMPP | Imperial Petroleum | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.56 | (6.94) | 33.83 | |
| EPSN | Epsilon Energy | 0.31 | 18 per month | 1.96 | 0.01 | 4.61 | (3.07) | 11.38 | |
| GTE | Gran Tierra Energy | (0.04) | 9 per month | 4.05 | 0.13 | 8.24 | (5.26) | 23.83 | |
| NCSM | NCS Multistage Holdings | (3.29) | 7 per month | 2.73 | (0.01) | 5.26 | (4.85) | 20.91 | |
| ZEO | Zeo Energy Corp | 0.31 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.56 | (8.72) | 24.78 | |
| ANNA | AleAnna Class A | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.00 | (5.80) | 20.01 | |
| SLNG | Stabilis Solutions | 0.31 | 14 per month | 2.50 | 0.07 | 5.67 | (4.40) | 20.66 | |
| SND | Smart Sand | 0.72 | 20 per month | 4.16 | 0.23 | 10.57 | (5.83) | 36.57 | |
| LSE | Leishen Energy Holding | 0.38 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.60 | (5.90) | 20.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Empire Petroleum
For every potential investor in Empire, whether a beginner or expert, Empire Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Empire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Empire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Empire Petroleum's price trends.Empire Petroleum Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Empire Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Empire Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Empire Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Empire Petroleum Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Empire Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Empire Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Empire Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Empire Petroleum Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Empire Petroleum Risk Indicators
The analysis of Empire Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Empire Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting empire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.79 | |||
| Variance | 22.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Empire Petroleum
The number of cover stories for Empire Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Empire Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Empire Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Empire Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Empire Petroleum Short Properties
Empire Petroleum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Empire Petroleum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Empire Petroleum Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Empire Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Empire Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.3 M |
Additional Tools for Empire Stock Analysis
When running Empire Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Empire Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Empire Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Empire Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Empire Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Empire Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Empire Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.