Evolent Health Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EVH Stock | USD 10.00 0.16 1.57% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evolent Health on the next trading day is expected to be 11.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.42. Evolent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Evolent Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Evolent |
Open Interest Against 2025-03-21 Evolent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Evolent Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Evolent Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Evolent Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Evolent Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Evolent Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Evolent Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Evolent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Evolent Health Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Evolent Health's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2013-12-31 | Previous Quarter 121.3 M | Current Value 96.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 87.7 M |
Evolent Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Evolent Health on the next trading day is expected to be 11.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 2.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evolent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evolent Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evolent Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evolent Health | Evolent Health Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Evolent Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evolent Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evolent Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.16 and 18.42, respectively. We have considered Evolent Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evolent Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evolent Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.105 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2199 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0866 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 74.4152 |
Predictive Modules for Evolent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolent Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evolent Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Evolent Health
For every potential investor in Evolent, whether a beginner or expert, Evolent Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evolent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evolent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evolent Health's price trends.Evolent Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evolent Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evolent Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evolent Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evolent Health Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Evolent Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Evolent Health's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evolent Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evolent Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evolent Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evolent Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evolent Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Evolent Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evolent Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evolent Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evolent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.95 | |||
| Variance | 48.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolent Health to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Evolent Stock please use our How to Invest in Evolent Health guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Health Care Technology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evolent Health. If investors know Evolent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evolent Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.92) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.216 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Evolent Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evolent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evolent Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evolent Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evolent Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evolent Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evolent Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evolent Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evolent Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.