Evolent Health Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| EVH Stock | USD 3.94 0.10 2.60% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Evolent Health on the next trading day is expected to be 3.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.79. Evolent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Evolent Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of January 2026 the rsi of Evolent Health's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1239 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0619 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3018 | Wall Street Target Price 9.1818 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.1025 |
Using Evolent Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evolent Health from the perspective of Evolent Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Evolent Health using Evolent Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Evolent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Evolent Health's stock price.
Evolent Health Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Evolent Health's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Evolent. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Evolent Health stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.8106 | Short Percent 0.1782 | Short Ratio 6.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.1 M | 50 Day MA 4.0596 |
Evolent Health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Evolent Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Evolent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Evolent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Evolent Health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Evolent Health Implied Volatility | 2.4 |
Evolent Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Evolent Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Evolent Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Evolent Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Evolent Health's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Evolent Health on the next trading day is expected to be 3.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.79. Evolent Health after-hype prediction price | USD 3.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolent Health to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Evolent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Evolent Health will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.15% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Evolent Health trading at USD 3.94, that is roughly USD 0.00591 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Evolent Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Evolent Health options at the current volatility level of 2.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Evolent Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Evolent Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Evolent Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Evolent Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Evolent Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Evolent Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Evolent Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Evolent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Evolent Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evolent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evolent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evolent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Evolent Health Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Evolent Health on the next trading day is expected to be 3.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evolent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evolent Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Evolent Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Evolent Health | Evolent Health Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Evolent Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Evolent Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evolent Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 8.23, respectively. We have considered Evolent Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evolent Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evolent Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.7945 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0826 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1658 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0369 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.785 |
Predictive Modules for Evolent Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolent Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evolent Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evolent Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evolent Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evolent Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evolent Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evolent Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evolent Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evolent Health's historical news coverage. Evolent Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 8.04, respectively. We have considered Evolent Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evolent Health is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evolent Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evolent Health Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evolent Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evolent Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evolent Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.97 | 4.29 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.94 | 3.75 | 4.82 |
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Evolent Health Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Evolent Health is traded for 3.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Evolent is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -4.82%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.97%. The volatility of related hype on Evolent Health is about 4515.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.85. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.52. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Evolent Health recorded a loss per share of 1.57. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolent Health to cross-verify your projections.Evolent Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evolent Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evolent Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Evolent Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evolent Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUTX | Nutex Health | 0.07 | 31 per month | 5.28 | 0.1 | 13.09 | (9.66) | 39.99 | |
| HSTM | HealthStream | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.61 | (2.29) | 6.59 | |
| AMN | AMN Healthcare Services | (0.53) | 9 per month | 2.69 | 0.01 | 4.72 | (3.31) | 29.87 | |
| MYGN | Myriad Genetics | (0.33) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.67 | (4.05) | 23.44 | |
| REPL | Replimune Group | (0.20) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.56 | (5.39) | 20.44 | |
| AVBP | ArriVent BioPharma Common | (0.17) | 4 per month | 3.34 | 0.06 | 6.71 | (6.03) | 16.37 | |
| MGTX | MeiraGTx Holdings PLC | 0.04 | 11 per month | 3.16 | (0.01) | 5.91 | (5.54) | 18.20 | |
| BFLY | Butterfly Network | 0.07 | 11 per month | 4.74 | 0.15 | 14.22 | (9.14) | 42.22 | |
| PSNL | Personalis | 0.56 | 10 per month | 5.16 | 0.02 | 14.09 | (9.60) | 34.91 | |
| KURA | Kura Oncology | (0.37) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.59 | (5.06) | 22.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Evolent Health
For every potential investor in Evolent, whether a beginner or expert, Evolent Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evolent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evolent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evolent Health's price trends.Evolent Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evolent Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evolent Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evolent Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Evolent Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evolent Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evolent Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evolent Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evolent Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Evolent Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Evolent Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evolent Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evolent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.35 | |||
| Variance | 18.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Evolent Health
The number of cover stories for Evolent Health depends on current market conditions and Evolent Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Evolent Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Evolent Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Evolent Health Short Properties
Evolent Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Evolent Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Evolent Health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Evolent Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolent Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 163.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evolent Health to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Evolent Stock please use our How to Invest in Evolent Health guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Health Care Technology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evolent Health. If investors know Evolent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evolent Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.57) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Evolent Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evolent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evolent Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evolent Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evolent Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evolent Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evolent Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evolent Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evolent Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.