Exelon Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| EXC Stock | USD 44.76 0.07 0.16% |
Exelon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Exelon stock prices and determine the direction of Exelon's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Exelon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Exelon's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Exelon, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.229 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6129 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.7042 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.8345 | Wall Street Target Price 48.875 |
Using Exelon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exelon from the perspective of Exelon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Exelon using Exelon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Exelon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Exelon's stock price.
Exelon Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Exelon's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Exelon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Exelon stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 44.6096 | Short Percent 0.0526 | Short Ratio 6.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 42.8 M | 50 Day MA 44.3904 |
Exelon Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Exelon on the next trading day is expected to be 44.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.82.Exelon Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Exelon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exelon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exelon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exelon. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Exelon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Exelon.
Exelon Implied Volatility | 0.29 |
Exelon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Exelon stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Exelon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Exelon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Exelon's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Exelon on the next trading day is expected to be 44.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.82. Exelon after-hype prediction price | USD 44.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exelon to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Exelon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Exelon will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0181% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Exelon trading at USD 44.76, that is roughly USD 0.008113 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Exelon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Exelon options at the current volatility level of 0.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Exelon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Exelon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Exelon's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Exelon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Exelon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Exelon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Exelon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Exelon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Exelon Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exelon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exelon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exelon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exelon Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Exelon on the next trading day is expected to be 44.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exelon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exelon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exelon Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Exelon | Exelon Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Exelon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exelon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exelon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.75 and 45.77, respectively. We have considered Exelon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exelon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exelon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0683 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0258 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4037 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.82 |
Predictive Modules for Exelon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exelon. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exelon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Exelon After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exelon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exelon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exelon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exelon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exelon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exelon's historical news coverage. Exelon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.76 and 45.76, respectively. We have considered Exelon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exelon is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exelon is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exelon Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exelon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exelon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exelon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 12 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.76 | 44.76 | 0.00 |
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Exelon Hype Timeline
On the 30th of January Exelon is traded for 44.76. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Exelon is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Exelon is about 299.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.77. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.61. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Exelon has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.05. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The firm had 1402:1000 split on the 2nd of February 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exelon to cross-verify your projections.Exelon Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exelon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exelon's future price movements. Getting to know how Exelon's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exelon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Other Forecasting Options for Exelon
For every potential investor in Exelon, whether a beginner or expert, Exelon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exelon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exelon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exelon's price trends.View Exelon Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exelon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exelon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exelon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exelon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exelon entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Exelon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exelon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exelon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exelon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8348 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.02 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Exelon
The number of cover stories for Exelon depends on current market conditions and Exelon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exelon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exelon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Exelon Short Properties
Exelon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Exelon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exelon often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exelon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exelon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 357 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exelon to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Exelon Stock refer to our How to Trade Exelon Stock guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Will Electric Utilities sector continue expanding? Could Exelon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exelon. Projected growth potential of Exelon fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Exelon data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.229 | Dividend Share 1.58 | Earnings Share 2.79 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.09 |
The market value of Exelon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exelon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exelon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exelon's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Exelon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exelon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Exelon's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Exelon should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Exelon's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.