ExlService Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EXLS Stock | USD 50.49 0.59 1.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ExlService Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 51.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.56. ExlService Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
ExlService |
Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 ExlService Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ExlService Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ExlService Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ExlService Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ExlService Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to ExlService Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ExlService Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ExlService. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the ExlService Holdings' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 121.7 M | Current Value 150.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 41.4 M |
ExlService Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ExlService Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 51.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ExlService Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ExlService Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ExlService Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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ExlService Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ExlService Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ExlService Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.11 and 53.09, respectively. We have considered ExlService Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ExlService Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ExlService Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6486 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0142 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.5629 |
Predictive Modules for ExlService Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ExlService Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for ExlService Holdings
For every potential investor in ExlService, whether a beginner or expert, ExlService Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ExlService Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ExlService. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ExlService Holdings' price trends.ExlService Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ExlService Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ExlService Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ExlService Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ExlService Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ExlService Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ExlService Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
ExlService Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ExlService Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ExlService Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ExlService Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ExlService Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8076.69 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9672 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 50.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 50.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.59 |
ExlService Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of ExlService Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ExlService Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exlservice stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6744 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4549 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for ExlService Stock Analysis
When running ExlService Holdings' price analysis, check to measure ExlService Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ExlService Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of ExlService Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ExlService Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ExlService Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ExlService Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.