First Advantage Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FA Stock | USD 14.15 0.64 4.33% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Advantage Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.16. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Advantage stock prices and determine the direction of First Advantage Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Advantage's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of First Advantage's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2683 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.005 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.1849 | Wall Street Target Price 17.5714 |
Using First Advantage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Advantage Corp from the perspective of First Advantage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Advantage using First Advantage's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Advantage's stock price.
First Advantage Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in First Advantage's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards First. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of First Advantage stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 15.5714 | Short Percent 0.1508 | Short Ratio 21.75 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.2 M | 50 Day MA 14.2652 |
First Advantage Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Advantage's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Advantage Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
First Advantage Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
First Advantage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Advantage Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Advantage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Advantage stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Advantage's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Advantage Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.16. First Advantage after-hype prediction price | USD 14.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Advantage to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Advantage Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With First Advantage trading at USD 14.15, that is roughly USD 0.008755 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Advantage's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Advantage Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Advantage's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Advantage's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Advantage stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Advantage's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Advantage's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Advantage is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
First Advantage Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Advantage Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the First Advantage's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2003-06-30 | Previous Quarter 184.3 M | Current Value 216.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 134.4 M |
First Advantage Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Advantage Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 14.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Advantage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Advantage Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Advantage | First Advantage Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Advantage Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Advantage's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Advantage's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.24 and 16.85, respectively. We have considered First Advantage's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Advantage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Advantage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.346 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3469 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.025 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.1604 |
Predictive Modules for First Advantage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Advantage Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Advantage After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Advantage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Advantage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Advantage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Advantage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Advantage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Advantage's historical news coverage. First Advantage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.47 and 17.01, respectively. We have considered First Advantage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Advantage is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Advantage Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Advantage Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Advantage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Advantage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Advantage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.81 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.15 | 14.24 | 3.72 |
|
First Advantage Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 First Advantage Corp is listed for 14.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.24. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -3.72%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on First Advantage is about 869.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.14. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.92. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Advantage Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.61. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.89. The firm last dividend was issued on the 18th of August 2023. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Advantage to cross-verify your projections.First Advantage Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Advantage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Advantage's future price movements. Getting to know how First Advantage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Advantage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TIC | Acuren | (0.25) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.24 | (4.86) | 13.24 | |
| CMPO | CompoSecure | 0.1 | 10 per month | 2.42 | 0.10 | 4.73 | (4.26) | 15.13 | |
| UPWK | Upwork Inc | 0.69 | 10 per month | 2.69 | 0.1 | 7.31 | (5.07) | 20.70 | |
| LZ | LegalZoom | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.71 | (3.42) | 15.50 | |
| ALG | Alamo Group | (4.10) | 12 per month | 1.40 | 0.01 | 2.47 | (2.08) | 8.89 | |
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines | 0.47 | 10 per month | 5.24 | 0.12 | 11.71 | (8.49) | 46.43 | |
| TRTN-PC | Triton International Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | (0.13) | 0.68 | (0.64) | 2.46 | |
| HUBG | Hub Group | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.11 | 0.19 | 4.24 | (2.26) | 7.44 | |
| TRN | Trinity Industries | 0.40 | 11 per month | 1.50 | (0.05) | 2.29 | (2.67) | 13.36 | |
| AMRC | Ameresco | (0.54) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.15 | (6.06) | 16.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Advantage
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Advantage's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Advantage's price trends.First Advantage Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Advantage stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Advantage could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Advantage by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Advantage Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Advantage stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Advantage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Advantage stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Advantage Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 14183.87 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.96) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.35 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.61) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.64) |
First Advantage Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Advantage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Advantage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Variance | 7.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Advantage
The number of cover stories for First Advantage depends on current market conditions and First Advantage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Advantage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Advantage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
First Advantage Short Properties
First Advantage's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Advantage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Advantage Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Advantage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Advantage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 148.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 168.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Advantage to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Human Resource & Employment Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Advantage. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Advantage listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (0.89) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.055 | Return On Assets |
The market value of First Advantage Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Advantage's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Advantage's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Advantage's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Advantage's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Advantage's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Advantage is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Advantage's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.