Abrdn Asia Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

FAP Stock  CAD 2.77  0.02  0.73%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of abrdn Asia Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 2.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74. Abrdn Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Abrdn Asia's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Abrdn Asia's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Abrdn Asia fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Abrdn Asia's Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of November 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 7.42, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (3.42). . As of the 29th of November 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 54.5 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (21.5 M).
A four-period moving average forecast model for abrdn Asia Pacific is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Abrdn Asia 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of abrdn Asia Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 2.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Abrdn Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Abrdn Asia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Abrdn Asia Stock Forecast Pattern

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Abrdn Asia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Abrdn Asia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Abrdn Asia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.12 and 3.41, respectively. We have considered Abrdn Asia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.77
2.76
Expected Value
3.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Abrdn Asia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Abrdn Asia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria102.445
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0032
MADMean absolute deviation0.0129
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0047
SAESum of the absolute errors0.7375
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Abrdn Asia. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for abrdn Asia Pacific and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Abrdn Asia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as abrdn Asia Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.122.773.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.832.483.13
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Abrdn Asia

For every potential investor in Abrdn, whether a beginner or expert, Abrdn Asia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Abrdn Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Abrdn. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Abrdn Asia's price trends.

Abrdn Asia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Abrdn Asia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Abrdn Asia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Abrdn Asia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

abrdn Asia Pacific Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Abrdn Asia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Abrdn Asia's current price.

Abrdn Asia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Abrdn Asia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Abrdn Asia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Abrdn Asia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify abrdn Asia Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Abrdn Asia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Abrdn Asia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Abrdn Asia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abrdn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Abrdn Asia

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Abrdn Asia position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Abrdn Asia will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Abrdn Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Abrdn Asia could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Abrdn Asia when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Abrdn Asia - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling abrdn Asia Pacific to buy it.
The correlation of Abrdn Asia is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Abrdn Asia moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if abrdn Asia Pacific moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Abrdn Asia can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Abrdn Stock

Abrdn Asia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Abrdn Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Abrdn with respect to the benefits of owning Abrdn Asia security.