Ferguson Plc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FERG Stock | USD 214.99 6.05 2.90% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ferguson Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 205.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 228.94. Ferguson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ferguson Plc's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ferguson |
Ferguson Plc Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Ferguson Plc's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-07-31 | Previous Quarter 755 M | Current Value 571 M | Quarterly Volatility 538 M |
Ferguson Plc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ferguson Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 205.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.75, mean absolute percentage error of 21.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 228.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ferguson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ferguson Plc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ferguson Plc Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ferguson Plc | Ferguson Plc Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ferguson Plc Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ferguson Plc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ferguson Plc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 204.28 and 207.67, respectively. We have considered Ferguson Plc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ferguson Plc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ferguson Plc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1883 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7531 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 228.94 |
Predictive Modules for Ferguson Plc
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ferguson Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ferguson Plc
For every potential investor in Ferguson, whether a beginner or expert, Ferguson Plc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ferguson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ferguson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ferguson Plc's price trends.Ferguson Plc Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ferguson Plc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ferguson Plc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ferguson Plc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ferguson Plc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ferguson Plc's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ferguson Plc's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Ferguson Plc Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ferguson Plc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ferguson Plc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ferguson Plc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ferguson Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ferguson Plc Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ferguson Plc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ferguson Plc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ferguson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Ferguson Plc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ferguson Plc's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ferguson Plc's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ferguson Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ferguson Plc to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Ferguson Stock please use our How to Invest in Ferguson Plc guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ferguson Plc. If investors know Ferguson will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ferguson Plc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 3.16 | Earnings Share 8.52 | Revenue Per Share 146.057 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.014 |
The market value of Ferguson Plc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ferguson that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ferguson Plc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ferguson Plc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ferguson Plc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ferguson Plc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ferguson Plc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ferguson Plc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ferguson Plc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.