Ferguson Plc Stock Price Prediction
| FERG Stock | USD 177.55 1.10 0.62% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
31
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.4867 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.6908 | Wall Street Target Price 216.34 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 2.6128 |
Using Ferguson Plc hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ferguson Plc from the perspective of Ferguson Plc response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ferguson Plc using Ferguson Plc's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ferguson using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ferguson Plc's stock price.
Ferguson Plc Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ferguson Plc's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ferguson. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ferguson Plc stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 202.0288 | Short Percent 0.0147 | Short Ratio 1.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 193.89 |
Ferguson Plc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ferguson Plc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ferguson. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ferguson can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ferguson Plc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ferguson Plc's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ferguson Plc.
Ferguson Plc Implied Volatility | 0.36 |
Ferguson Plc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ferguson Plc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ferguson Plc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ferguson Plc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ferguson Plc's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ferguson Plc to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ferguson because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ferguson Plc after-hype prediction price | USD 177.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ferguson contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ferguson Plc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0225% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With Ferguson Plc trading at USD 177.55, that is roughly USD 0.0399 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ferguson Plc's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ferguson Plc options at the current volatility level of 0.36%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Ferguson |
Ferguson Plc After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ferguson Plc at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ferguson Plc or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ferguson Plc, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ferguson Plc Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ferguson Plc's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ferguson Plc's historical news coverage. Ferguson Plc's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 175.17 and 179.19, respectively. We have considered Ferguson Plc's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ferguson Plc is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ferguson Plc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ferguson Plc Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ferguson Plc is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ferguson Plc backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ferguson Plc, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.01 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
177.55 | 177.18 | 0.21 |
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Ferguson Plc Hype Timeline
Ferguson Plc is currently traded for 177.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Ferguson is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 177.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 87.77%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Ferguson Plc is about 192.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 177.72. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.51. Ferguson Plc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.38. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of September 2024. The firm had 947:1000 split on the 11th of June 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Ferguson Plc Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ferguson Plc Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ferguson Plc's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ferguson Plc's future price movements. Getting to know how Ferguson Plc's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ferguson Plc may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DXPE | DXP Enterprises | (0.71) | 10 per month | 1.21 | 0.28 | 6.82 | (2.91) | 24.48 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | 0.27 | 8 per month | 1.16 | 0.08 | 2.93 | (1.96) | 17.60 | |
| GIC | Global Industrial Co | 0.15 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.00 | (3.02) | 22.56 | |
| MSM | MSC Industrial Direct | (3.04) | 7 per month | 1.76 | (0.0006) | 3.43 | (3.31) | 11.93 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 5.47 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.46 | (3.00) | 12.54 | |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 0.62 | 9 per month | 1.08 | (0.02) | 1.23 | (1.75) | 10.87 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | 9.44 | 11 per month | 1.00 | 0 | 2.23 | (1.91) | 9.09 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | (0.28) | 9 per month | 1.52 | (0.0009) | 2.52 | (3.18) | 9.98 | |
| CNM | Core Main | (0.30) | 12 per month | 1.44 | 0.11 | 4.25 | (2.43) | 18.90 | |
| SITE | SiteOne Landscape Supply | (1.18) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 3.78 | (3.24) | 9.36 |
Ferguson Plc Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ferguson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ferguson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ferguson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ferguson Plc Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ferguson Plc stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ferguson Plc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ferguson Plc based on analysis of Ferguson Plc hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ferguson Plc's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ferguson Plc's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0213 | 0.0174 | 0.0156 | 0.0172 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.12 | 1.52 | 1.75 | 1.67 |
Story Coverage note for Ferguson Plc
The number of cover stories for Ferguson Plc depends on current market conditions and Ferguson Plc's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ferguson Plc is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ferguson Plc's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ferguson Plc Short Properties
Ferguson Plc's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ferguson Plc's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ferguson Plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ferguson Plc's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ferguson Plc's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 203.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 571 M |
Complementary Tools for Ferguson Stock analysis
When running Ferguson Plc's price analysis, check to measure Ferguson Plc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ferguson Plc is operating at the current time. Most of Ferguson Plc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ferguson Plc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ferguson Plc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ferguson Plc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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