Fair Isaac Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FICO Stock | USD 1,557 21.41 1.39% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fair Isaac on the next trading day is expected to be 1,530 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,856. Fair Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Fair Isaac's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fair Isaac's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fair Isaac fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Fair Isaac's share price is approaching 42. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fair Isaac, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.179 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 7.0517 | EPS Estimate Current Year 40.6915 | EPS Estimate Next Year 51.7911 | Wall Street Target Price 2 K |
Using Fair Isaac hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fair Isaac from the perspective of Fair Isaac response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fair Isaac using Fair Isaac's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fair using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fair Isaac's stock price.
Fair Isaac Short Interest
An investor who is long Fair Isaac may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Fair Isaac and may potentially protect profits, hedge Fair Isaac with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.7 K | Short Percent 0.0573 | Short Ratio 5.24 | Shares Short Prior Month 1 M | 50 Day MA 1.7 K |
Fair Isaac Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Fair Isaac's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fair. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fair can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fair Isaac. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Fair Isaac Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Fair Isaac's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fair Isaac stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fair Isaac's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fair Isaac stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fair Isaac's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fair Isaac on the next trading day is expected to be 1,530 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,856. Fair Isaac after-hype prediction price | USD 1556.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fair Isaac to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fair contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fair Isaac will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Fair Isaac trading at USD 1556.95, that is roughly USD 0.51 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fair Isaac's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fair Isaac options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Fair Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fair Isaac's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fair Isaac's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fair Isaac stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fair Isaac's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fair Isaac's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fair Isaac is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fair. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fair Isaac Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fair price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fair using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fair charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fair Isaac Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Fair Isaac's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1986-09-30 | Previous Quarter 189 M | Current Value 134.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 72.9 M |
Fair Isaac Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fair Isaac on the next trading day is expected to be 1,530 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1,337, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,856.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fair Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fair Isaac's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fair Isaac Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fair Isaac | Fair Isaac Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fair Isaac Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fair Isaac's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fair Isaac's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,528 and 1,532, respectively. We have considered Fair Isaac's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fair Isaac stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fair Isaac stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 127.1467 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 29.9288 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1855.5846 |
Predictive Modules for Fair Isaac
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fair Isaac. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fair Isaac's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fair Isaac After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fair Isaac at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fair Isaac or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fair Isaac, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fair Isaac Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fair Isaac's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fair Isaac's historical news coverage. Fair Isaac's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,555 and 1,559, respectively. We have considered Fair Isaac's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fair Isaac is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fair Isaac is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fair Isaac Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fair Isaac is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fair Isaac backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fair Isaac, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 2.21 | 2.78 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1,557 | 1,557 | 0.00 |
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Fair Isaac Hype Timeline
Fair Isaac is currently traded for 1,557. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.78, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Fair is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 8.76%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fair Isaac is about 2351.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,557. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.47. Fair Isaac recorded earning per share (EPS) of 26.47. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of March 2017. The firm had 3:2 split on the 11th of March 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fair Isaac to cross-verify your projections.Fair Isaac Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fair Isaac's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fair Isaac's future price movements. Getting to know how Fair Isaac's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fair Isaac may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLS | Celestica | 8.85 | 9 per month | 4.96 | 0.02 | 6.99 | (7.56) | 27.95 | |
| GRMN | Garmin | 0.78 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.07 | (2.42) | 12.54 | |
| NOK | Nokia Corp ADR | 1.94 | 24 per month | 2.53 | 0.04 | 3.93 | (4.42) | 31.94 | |
| TEAM | Atlassian Corp Plc | (5.24) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.93 | (5.84) | 13.95 | |
| TTD | Trade Desk | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.46 | (4.10) | 11.36 | |
| ZM | Zoom Video Communications | (0.62) | 11 per month | 1.75 | 0 | 3.43 | (3.14) | 13.95 | |
| XYZ | Block Inc | (1.11) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.96 | (5.03) | 14.15 | |
| PTC | PTC Inc | (0.62) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.77 | (2.79) | 9.93 | |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 3.36 | 13 per month | 0.77 | 0.18 | 3.10 | (2.07) | 8.70 | |
| UI | Ubiquiti Networks | (6.39) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.19 | (4.07) | 22.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fair Isaac
For every potential investor in Fair, whether a beginner or expert, Fair Isaac's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fair Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fair. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fair Isaac's price trends.Fair Isaac Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fair Isaac stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fair Isaac could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fair Isaac by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fair Isaac Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fair Isaac stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fair Isaac shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fair Isaac stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fair Isaac entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7943.42 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4638 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1549.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1551.92 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 18.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 21.41 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.01 |
Fair Isaac Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fair Isaac's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fair Isaac's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fair stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fair Isaac
The number of cover stories for Fair Isaac depends on current market conditions and Fair Isaac's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fair Isaac is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fair Isaac's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fair Isaac Short Properties
Fair Isaac's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fair Isaac's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fair Isaac often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fair Isaac's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fair Isaac's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 134.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fair Isaac to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Fair Stock, please use our How to Invest in Fair Isaac guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fair Isaac. If investors know Fair will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fair Isaac listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.179 | Earnings Share 26.47 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.136 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Fair Isaac is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fair that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fair Isaac's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fair Isaac's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fair Isaac's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fair Isaac's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fair Isaac's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fair Isaac is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fair Isaac's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.