Fair Isaac Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FICO Stock | USD 2,382 22.18 0.94% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fair Isaac on the next trading day is expected to be 2,338 with a mean absolute deviation of 40.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,467. Fair Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Fair Isaac's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fair Isaac's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fair Isaac fundamentals over time.
Fair |
Fair Isaac Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Fair Isaac's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1986-09-30 | Previous Quarter 156 M | Current Value 150.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 72.8 M |
Fair Isaac Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fair Isaac on the next trading day is expected to be 2,338 with a mean absolute deviation of 40.44, mean absolute percentage error of 2,815, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,467.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fair Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fair Isaac's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fair Isaac Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fair Isaac | Fair Isaac Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fair Isaac Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fair Isaac's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fair Isaac's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,337 and 2,340, respectively. We have considered Fair Isaac's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fair Isaac stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fair Isaac stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.0531 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 40.4433 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0194 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2467.042 |
Predictive Modules for Fair Isaac
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fair Isaac. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fair Isaac's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fair Isaac
For every potential investor in Fair, whether a beginner or expert, Fair Isaac's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fair Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fair. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fair Isaac's price trends.View Fair Isaac Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fair Isaac Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fair Isaac's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fair Isaac's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Fair Isaac Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fair Isaac stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fair Isaac shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fair Isaac stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fair Isaac entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0159 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5831 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2371.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2375.09 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 38.04 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 22.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 22.18 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.45 |
Fair Isaac Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fair Isaac's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fair Isaac's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fair stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.836 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6989 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Fair Isaac
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Fair Isaac position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Fair Isaac will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Fair Stock
| 0.82 | DJCO | Daily Journal Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | AI | C3 Ai Inc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | BL | Blackline | PairCorr |
Moving against Fair Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Fair Isaac could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Fair Isaac when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Fair Isaac - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Fair Isaac to buy it.
The correlation of Fair Isaac is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Fair Isaac moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Fair Isaac moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Fair Isaac can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fair Isaac to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Fair Stock, please use our How to Invest in Fair Isaac guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fair Isaac. If investors know Fair will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fair Isaac listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.353 | Earnings Share 20.49 | Revenue Per Share 69.603 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.164 | Return On Assets 0.2785 |
The market value of Fair Isaac is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fair that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fair Isaac's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fair Isaac's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fair Isaac's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fair Isaac's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fair Isaac's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fair Isaac is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fair Isaac's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.