First Northern OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

FNRN Stock  USD 13.59  0.01  0.07%   
First OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of First Northern's otc stock price is about 68. This usually indicates that the otc stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling First, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 68

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
First Northern Community stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of First Northern shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of First Northern's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of First Northern and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from First Northern's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First Northern Community, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of First Northern based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using First Northern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Northern Community from the perspective of First Northern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Northern Community on the next trading day is expected to be 13.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.92.

First Northern after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.59  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Northern to cross-verify your projections.

First Northern Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for First Northern is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Northern Community value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

First Northern Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Northern Community on the next trading day is expected to be 13.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Northern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First Northern OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest First Northern  First Northern Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

First Northern Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First Northern's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Northern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.20 and 14.15, respectively. We have considered First Northern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.59
13.68
Expected Value
14.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Northern otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Northern otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.9605
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0314
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0024
SAESum of the absolute errors1.9182
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Northern Community. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Northern. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First Northern

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Northern Community. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.1213.5914.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.9713.4413.91
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.3013.4513.60
Details

First Northern After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of First Northern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Northern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of First Northern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

First Northern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting First Northern's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Northern's historical news coverage. First Northern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.12 and 14.06, respectively. We have considered First Northern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.59
13.59
After-hype Price
14.06
Upside
First Northern is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Northern Community is based on 3 months time horizon.

First Northern OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as First Northern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Northern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Northern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
0.47
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.59
13.59
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

First Northern Hype Timeline

First Northern Community is currently traded for 13.59. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Northern is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.59. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.02. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Northern Community last dividend was issued on the 28th of May 2010. The entity had 105:100 split on the 25th of February 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Northern to cross-verify your projections.

First Northern Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to First Northern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Northern's future price movements. Getting to know how First Northern's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Northern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MLGFMalaga Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.41  0.02  3.56 (3.12) 12.28 
TSCFYTISCO Financial Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
FIZNFirst Citizens Bancshares 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (1.18) 0.00  0.00  0.50 
EXSRExchange Bank 0.00 0 per month 1.16  0.13  2.56 (2.22) 13.18 
FFMHFirst Farmers and 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.20  1.11 (0.60) 3.36 
MFGIMerchants Financial Group 0.00 0 per month 0.48  0.17  1.57 (1.60) 4.97 
CBTNCitizens Bancorp Investment 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.10  1.67  0.00  4.52 
FIEBFirst IC 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.27) 0.00 (0.23) 6.00 
CCFNCCFNB Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.49  0.09  2.17 (0.95) 6.93 
TRUXTruxton 0.00 0 per month 1.38  0.01  2.75 (2.92) 9.79 

Other Forecasting Options for First Northern

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Northern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Northern's price trends.

First Northern Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Northern otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Northern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Northern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Northern Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Northern otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Northern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Northern otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Northern Community entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First Northern Risk Indicators

The analysis of First Northern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Northern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for First Northern

The number of cover stories for First Northern depends on current market conditions and First Northern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Northern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Northern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

First Northern Short Properties

First Northern's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Northern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Northern Community often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Northern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Northern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments345.9 M

Other Information on Investing in First OTC Stock

First Northern financial ratios help investors to determine whether First OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Northern security.