Franco Nevada Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| FNV Stock | CAD 343.87 17.75 5.44% |
Franco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Franco Nevada's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Franco Nevada's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Franco Nevada fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Franco Nevada's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.886 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5101 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.3872 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.1463 | Wall Street Target Price 368.4094 |
Using Franco Nevada hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Franco Nevada from the perspective of Franco Nevada response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Franco Nevada on the next trading day is expected to be 350.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 738.55. Franco Nevada after-hype prediction price | CAD 346.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Franco |
Franco Nevada Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Franco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Franco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Franco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Franco Nevada Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Franco Nevada on the next trading day is expected to be 350.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.11, mean absolute percentage error of 220.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 738.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Franco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Franco Nevada's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Franco Nevada Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Franco Nevada | Franco Nevada Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Franco Nevada Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Franco Nevada's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Franco Nevada's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 347.81 and 353.04, respectively. We have considered Franco Nevada's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Franco Nevada stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Franco Nevada stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.5079 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.1073 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0383 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 738.5454 |
Predictive Modules for Franco Nevada
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franco Nevada. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Franco Nevada After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Franco Nevada at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Franco Nevada or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Franco Nevada, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Franco Nevada Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Franco Nevada's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Franco Nevada's historical news coverage. Franco Nevada's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 343.50 and 348.72, respectively. We have considered Franco Nevada's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Franco Nevada is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Franco Nevada is based on 3 months time horizon.
Franco Nevada Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Franco Nevada is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Franco Nevada backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Franco Nevada, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 2.61 | 2.24 | 0.23 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
343.87 | 346.11 | 0.65 |
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Franco Nevada Hype Timeline
Franco Nevada is currently traded for 343.87on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.23. Franco is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 346.11 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 46.69%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.65%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.4%. The volatility of related hype on Franco Nevada is about 444.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 344.10. The company reported the revenue of 1.11 B. Net Income was 552.1 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.38 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franco Nevada to cross-verify your projections.Franco Nevada Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Franco Nevada's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Franco Nevada's future price movements. Getting to know how Franco Nevada's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Franco Nevada may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WPM | Wheaton Precious Metals | (0.63) | 7 per month | 3.16 | 0.15 | 4.14 | (3.90) | 16.86 | |
| K | Kinross Gold Corp | 0.49 | 9 per month | 3.48 | 0.13 | 5.14 | (5.01) | 19.82 | |
| LUG | Lundin Gold | 0.1 | 6 per month | 3.88 | 0 | 4.75 | (5.00) | 21.00 | |
| ABX | Barrick Gold Corp | 1.17 | 8 per month | 3.27 | 0.13 | 4.31 | (4.30) | 19.86 | |
| EDV | Endeavour Mining Corp | 2.61 | 6 per month | 3.01 | 0.19 | 5.00 | (5.28) | 14.81 | |
| NTR | Nutrien | (0.54) | 9 per month | 1.67 | 0.09 | 3.33 | (2.64) | 12.57 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | 2.58 | 9 per month | 3.50 | 0.13 | 6.07 | (6.20) | 16.85 | |
| ELE | Elemental Royalties Corp | 0.52 | 2 per month | 4.15 | 0.11 | 7.46 | (6.72) | 25.24 | |
| OGN | Orogen Royalties | 0.02 | 3 per month | 3.29 | 0.12 | 7.69 | (5.51) | 27.57 | |
| TECK-B | Teck Resources Limited | (0.45) | 7 per month | 2.61 | 0.14 | 4.48 | (4.23) | 13.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Franco Nevada
For every potential investor in Franco, whether a beginner or expert, Franco Nevada's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Franco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Franco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Franco Nevada's price trends.Franco Nevada Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Franco Nevada stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Franco Nevada could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Franco Nevada by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Franco Nevada Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Franco Nevada stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Franco Nevada shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Franco Nevada stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Franco Nevada entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0418 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.232639 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 337.21 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 339.43 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 14.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 15.53 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 17.75 |
Franco Nevada Risk Indicators
The analysis of Franco Nevada's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Franco Nevada's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting franco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Variance | 6.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Franco Nevada
The number of cover stories for Franco Nevada depends on current market conditions and Franco Nevada's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Franco Nevada is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Franco Nevada's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Franco Nevada Short Properties
Franco Nevada's future price predictability will typically decrease when Franco Nevada's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Franco Nevada often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Franco Nevada's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Franco Nevada's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franco Nevada to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Franco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Franco Nevada guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.