Farmland Partners Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FPI Stock | USD 10.81 0.05 0.46% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Farmland Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.56. Farmland Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Farmland Partners' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Farmland Partners' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.79 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.18 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.36 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.16 | Wall Street Target Price 12 |
Using Farmland Partners hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Farmland Partners from the perspective of Farmland Partners response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Farmland Partners using Farmland Partners' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Farmland using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Farmland Partners' stock price.
Farmland Partners Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Farmland Partners' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Farmland. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Farmland Partners stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 10.537 | Short Percent 0.0717 | Short Ratio 4.65 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 9.9688 |
Farmland Partners Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Farmland Partners' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Farmland. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Farmland can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Farmland Partners. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Farmland Partners Implied Volatility | 1.18 |
Farmland Partners' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Farmland Partners stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Farmland Partners' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Farmland Partners stock will not fluctuate a lot when Farmland Partners' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Farmland Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.56. Farmland Partners after-hype prediction price | USD 10.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmland Partners to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Farmland contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Farmland Partners will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0738% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Farmland Partners trading at USD 10.81, that is roughly USD 0.007972 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Farmland Partners' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Farmland Partners options at the current volatility level of 1.18%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Farmland Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Farmland Partners' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Farmland Partners' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Farmland Partners stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Farmland Partners' open interest, investors have to compare it to Farmland Partners' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Farmland Partners is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Farmland. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Farmland Partners Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Farmland price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Farmland using various technical indicators. When you analyze Farmland charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Farmland Partners Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Farmland Partners' financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 51.1 M | Current Value 13.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 22.8 M |
Farmland Partners Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Farmland Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Farmland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Farmland Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Farmland Partners Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Farmland Partners | Farmland Partners Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Farmland Partners Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Farmland Partners' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Farmland Partners' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.95 and 12.47, respectively. We have considered Farmland Partners' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Farmland Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Farmland Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2138 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.122 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.565 |
Predictive Modules for Farmland Partners
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmland Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Farmland Partners After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Farmland Partners at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Farmland Partners or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Farmland Partners, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Farmland Partners Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Farmland Partners' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Farmland Partners' historical news coverage. Farmland Partners' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.55 and 12.07, respectively. We have considered Farmland Partners' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Farmland Partners is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Farmland Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.
Farmland Partners Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Farmland Partners is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Farmland Partners backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Farmland Partners, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.26 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
10.81 | 10.81 | 0.00 |
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Farmland Partners Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Farmland Partners is traded for 10.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Farmland is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Farmland Partners is about 840.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.83. About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.04. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Farmland Partners last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The entity had 1:4 split on the 17th of October 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmland Partners to cross-verify your projections.Farmland Partners Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Farmland Partners' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Farmland Partners' future price movements. Getting to know how Farmland Partners' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Farmland Partners may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NREF | Nexpoint Real Estate | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.35 | 0.07 | 2.44 | (2.47) | 8.26 | |
| CMTG | Claros Mortgage Trust | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.01 | (5.50) | 17.41 | |
| NLOP | Net Lease Office | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.62 | (1.87) | 7.34 | |
| OLP | One Liberty Properties | (0.21) | 7 per month | 1.01 | (0.02) | 2.17 | (1.72) | 6.81 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 0.13 | 7 per month | 0.80 | 0.20 | 2.47 | (1.86) | 8.03 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| PSTL | Postal Realty Trust | 0.03 | 4 per month | 0.63 | 0.16 | 2.27 | (1.22) | 5.03 | |
| FPH | Five Point Holdings | 1.24 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.56 | (2.83) | 6.59 | |
| PKST | Peakstone Realty Trust | (0.06) | 7 per month | 1.59 | 0.06 | 2.95 | (2.35) | 12.25 | |
| FRPH | Frp Holdings Ord | 0.45 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.27 | (2.90) | 8.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Farmland Partners
For every potential investor in Farmland, whether a beginner or expert, Farmland Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Farmland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Farmland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Farmland Partners' price trends.Farmland Partners Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Farmland Partners stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Farmland Partners could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmland Partners by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Farmland Partners Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Farmland Partners stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Farmland Partners shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Farmland Partners stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Farmland Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6094.96 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.23) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) |
Farmland Partners Risk Indicators
The analysis of Farmland Partners' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Farmland Partners' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting farmland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9195 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Farmland Partners
The number of cover stories for Farmland Partners depends on current market conditions and Farmland Partners' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Farmland Partners is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Farmland Partners' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Farmland Partners Short Properties
Farmland Partners' future price predictability will typically decrease when Farmland Partners' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Farmland Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Farmland Partners' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Farmland Partners' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 78.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmland Partners to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Farmland Stock please use our How to Invest in Farmland Partners guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Other Specialized REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Farmland Partners. If investors know Farmland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Farmland Partners listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.79 | Dividend Share 0.24 | Earnings Share 1.25 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Farmland Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Farmland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Farmland Partners' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Farmland Partners' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Farmland Partners' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Farmland Partners' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmland Partners' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmland Partners is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Farmland Partners' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.