LB Foster Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FSTR Stock | USD 29.16 0.68 2.28% |
FSTR Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although LB Foster's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of LB Foster's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of LB Foster fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of LB Foster's share price is at 55. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling LB Foster, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.49 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.135 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.765 | Wall Street Target Price 29 |
Using LB Foster hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LB Foster from the perspective of LB Foster response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards LB Foster using LB Foster's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FSTR using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of LB Foster's stock price.
LB Foster Short Interest
An investor who is long LB Foster may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about LB Foster and may potentially protect profits, hedge LB Foster with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 24.292 | Short Percent 0.0234 | Short Ratio 6.57 | Shares Short Prior Month 168.8 K | 50 Day MA 27.6224 |
FSTR Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LB Foster on the next trading day is expected to be 29.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.60.LB Foster Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to LB Foster's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FSTR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FSTR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around LB Foster. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of LB Foster's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about LB Foster.
LB Foster Implied Volatility | 1.12 |
LB Foster's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of LB Foster stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if LB Foster's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that LB Foster stock will not fluctuate a lot when LB Foster's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LB Foster on the next trading day is expected to be 29.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.60. LB Foster after-hype prediction price | USD 29.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LB Foster to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current FSTR contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that LB Foster will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.07% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With LB Foster trading at USD 29.16, that is roughly USD 0.0204 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating LB Foster's daily price movement you should consider acquiring LB Foster options at the current volatility level of 1.12%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 FSTR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast LB Foster's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in LB Foster's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for LB Foster stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current LB Foster's open interest, investors have to compare it to LB Foster's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of LB Foster is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FSTR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
LB Foster Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FSTR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FSTR using various technical indicators. When you analyze FSTR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LB Foster Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LB Foster on the next trading day is expected to be 29.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FSTR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LB Foster's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LB Foster Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LB Foster | LB Foster Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LB Foster Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LB Foster's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LB Foster's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.09 and 31.50, respectively. We have considered LB Foster's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LB Foster stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LB Foster stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1039 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4677 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.5952 |
Predictive Modules for LB Foster
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LB Foster. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LB Foster's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LB Foster After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LB Foster at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LB Foster or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LB Foster, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LB Foster Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LB Foster's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LB Foster's historical news coverage. LB Foster's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.97 and 31.35, respectively. We have considered LB Foster's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LB Foster is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LB Foster is based on 3 months time horizon.
LB Foster Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LB Foster is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LB Foster backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LB Foster, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.20 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 25 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 25 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.16 | 29.16 | 0.00 |
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LB Foster Hype Timeline
LB Foster is currently traded for 29.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. FSTR is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on LB Foster is about 1073.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.13. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. LB Foster has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.13. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of September 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 25 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LB Foster to cross-verify your projections.LB Foster Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LB Foster's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LB Foster's future price movements. Getting to know how LB Foster's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LB Foster may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PKOH | Park Ohio Holdings | (0.08) | 13 per month | 2.40 | 0.05 | 4.77 | (3.60) | 14.74 | |
| NL | NL Industries | (0.08) | 6 per month | 2.41 | 0.03 | 5.51 | (4.82) | 20.34 | |
| QUAD | Quad Graphics | (0.08) | 3 per month | 3.18 | 0.02 | 3.33 | (4.72) | 14.67 | |
| RLGT | Radiant Logistics | 0.20 | 6 per month | 1.72 | 0.03 | 3.34 | (3.07) | 8.55 | |
| CIX | CompX International | (1.67) | 8 per month | 2.01 | 0.01 | 3.07 | (2.51) | 19.01 | |
| BNC | CEA Industries | (0.37) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.58 | (9.22) | 35.96 | |
| OFLX | Omega Flex | (0.08) | 18 per month | 1.64 | 0.08 | 3.87 | (2.79) | 11.55 | |
| CVEO | Civeo Corp | 0.24 | 5 per month | 1.69 | 0.07 | 2.75 | (1.82) | 14.66 | |
| ACCO | Acco Brands | 0.05 | 8 per month | 2.09 | (0.01) | 3.25 | (3.17) | 9.71 | |
| GASS | StealthGas | (0.18) | 10 per month | 1.02 | 0.13 | 2.53 | (1.91) | 8.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for LB Foster
For every potential investor in FSTR, whether a beginner or expert, LB Foster's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FSTR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FSTR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LB Foster's price trends.LB Foster Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LB Foster stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LB Foster could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LB Foster by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LB Foster Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LB Foster stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LB Foster shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LB Foster stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LB Foster entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LB Foster Risk Indicators
The analysis of LB Foster's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LB Foster's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fstr stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LB Foster
The number of cover stories for LB Foster depends on current market conditions and LB Foster's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LB Foster is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LB Foster's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LB Foster Short Properties
LB Foster's future price predictability will typically decrease when LB Foster's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LB Foster often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LB Foster's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LB Foster's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.5 M |
Additional Tools for FSTR Stock Analysis
When running LB Foster's price analysis, check to measure LB Foster's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LB Foster is operating at the current time. Most of LB Foster's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LB Foster's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LB Foster's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LB Foster to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.