FTAI Aviation Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FTAI Stock | USD 292.10 1.39 0.47% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FTAI Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 292.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 308.02. FTAI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FTAI Aviation's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of FTAI Aviation's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.447 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.291 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.7725 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.733 | Wall Street Target Price 262.1 |
Using FTAI Aviation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FTAI Aviation from the perspective of FTAI Aviation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FTAI Aviation using FTAI Aviation's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FTAI using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FTAI Aviation's stock price.
FTAI Aviation Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in FTAI Aviation's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards FTAI. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of FTAI Aviation stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 148.4213 | Short Percent 0.0427 | Short Ratio 3.97 | Shares Short Prior Month 4 M | 50 Day MA 187.9379 |
FTAI Aviation Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to FTAI Aviation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FTAI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FTAI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around FTAI Aviation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
FTAI Aviation Implied Volatility | 1.06 |
FTAI Aviation's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FTAI Aviation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FTAI Aviation's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FTAI Aviation stock will not fluctuate a lot when FTAI Aviation's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FTAI Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 292.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 308.02. FTAI Aviation after-hype prediction price | USD 296.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FTAI Aviation to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current FTAI contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that FTAI Aviation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0663% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With FTAI Aviation trading at USD 292.1, that is roughly USD 0.19 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating FTAI Aviation's daily price movement you should consider acquiring FTAI Aviation options at the current volatility level of 1.06%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 FTAI Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast FTAI Aviation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in FTAI Aviation's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for FTAI Aviation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current FTAI Aviation's open interest, investors have to compare it to FTAI Aviation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of FTAI Aviation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FTAI. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
FTAI Aviation Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FTAI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FTAI using various technical indicators. When you analyze FTAI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FTAI Aviation Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FTAI Aviation on the next trading day is expected to be 292.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.13, mean absolute percentage error of 51.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 308.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FTAI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FTAI Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FTAI Aviation Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FTAI Aviation | FTAI Aviation Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FTAI Aviation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FTAI Aviation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FTAI Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 288.34 and 295.86, respectively. We have considered FTAI Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FTAI Aviation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FTAI Aviation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2188 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.79 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.1337 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0269 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 308.02 |
Predictive Modules for FTAI Aviation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FTAI Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FTAI Aviation After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FTAI Aviation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FTAI Aviation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FTAI Aviation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FTAI Aviation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FTAI Aviation's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FTAI Aviation's historical news coverage. FTAI Aviation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 293.14 and 300.64, respectively. We have considered FTAI Aviation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FTAI Aviation is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FTAI Aviation is based on 3 months time horizon.
FTAI Aviation Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FTAI Aviation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FTAI Aviation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FTAI Aviation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.82 | 3.76 | 8.61 | 0.61 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
292.10 | 296.89 | 1.16 |
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FTAI Aviation Hype Timeline
FTAI Aviation is currently traded for 292.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 8.61, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.61. FTAI is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 296.89 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 35.81%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.82%. The volatility of related hype on FTAI Aviation is about 502.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 292.71. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.75 B. Net Income was 8.68 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 965.13 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FTAI Aviation to cross-verify your projections.FTAI Aviation Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FTAI Aviation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FTAI Aviation's future price movements. Getting to know how FTAI Aviation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FTAI Aviation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RBA | RB Global | (1.32) | 12 per month | 0.96 | 0.12 | 2.23 | (1.78) | 7.27 | |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | (0.75) | 8 per month | 0.57 | 0.17 | 2.87 | (1.70) | 22.91 | |
| ACM | Aecom Technology | 1.35 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 1.78 | (3.01) | 13.23 | |
| SNA | Snap On | (2.38) | 11 per month | 0.78 | 0.05 | 1.94 | (1.45) | 3.63 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 1.79 | 7 per month | 1.22 | 0.16 | 3.61 | (2.23) | 16.03 | |
| NVT | nVent Electric PLC | 1.78 | 11 per month | 2.59 | 0.04 | 3.81 | (3.99) | 16.83 | |
| PNR | Pentair PLC | 3.50 | 6 per month | 1.45 | (0.07) | 2.78 | (2.40) | 7.55 | |
| TRU | TransUnion | (0.29) | 10 per month | 1.86 | 0.03 | 3.72 | (3.02) | 9.21 | |
| AER | AerCap Holdings NV | (1.10) | 11 per month | 0.68 | 0.12 | 2.39 | (1.63) | 11.63 | |
| LII | Lennox International | 4.90 | 11 per month | 2.27 | (0.05) | 2.75 | (2.67) | 12.85 |
Other Forecasting Options for FTAI Aviation
For every potential investor in FTAI, whether a beginner or expert, FTAI Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FTAI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FTAI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FTAI Aviation's price trends.FTAI Aviation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FTAI Aviation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FTAI Aviation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FTAI Aviation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FTAI Aviation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FTAI Aviation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FTAI Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FTAI Aviation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FTAI Aviation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 100496.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.10) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 296.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 294.82 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.77) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.39) |
FTAI Aviation Risk Indicators
The analysis of FTAI Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FTAI Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ftai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.71 | |||
| Variance | 13.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FTAI Aviation
The number of cover stories for FTAI Aviation depends on current market conditions and FTAI Aviation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FTAI Aviation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FTAI Aviation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FTAI Aviation Short Properties
FTAI Aviation's future price predictability will typically decrease when FTAI Aviation's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FTAI Aviation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FTAI Aviation's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FTAI Aviation's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 115.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FTAI Aviation to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in FTAI Stock please use our How to Invest in FTAI Aviation guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FTAI Aviation. If investors know FTAI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FTAI Aviation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.447 | Dividend Share 1.25 | Earnings Share 4.36 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.432 |
The market value of FTAI Aviation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FTAI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FTAI Aviation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FTAI Aviation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FTAI Aviation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FTAI Aviation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FTAI Aviation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FTAI Aviation is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FTAI Aviation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.