Six Flags Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FUN Stock | USD 17.47 0.25 1.41% |
Six Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Six Flags' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Six Flags' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Six Flags fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Six Flags' share price is approaching 49. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Six Flags, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.114 | EPS Estimate Current Year (15.10) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.0513 | Wall Street Target Price 25.2308 |
Using Six Flags hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Six Flags Entertainment from the perspective of Six Flags response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Six Flags using Six Flags' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Six using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Six Flags' stock price.
Six Flags Short Interest
An investor who is long Six Flags may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Six Flags and may potentially protect profits, hedge Six Flags with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 24.9915 | Short Percent 0.2537 | Short Ratio 7.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 19.5 M | 50 Day MA 15.1594 |
Six Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Six Flags Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 17.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.80.Six Flags Entertainment Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Six Flags' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Six. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Six can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Six Flags Entertainment. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Six Flags' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Six Flags.
Six Flags Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
Six Flags' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Six Flags Entertainment stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Six Flags' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Six Flags stock will not fluctuate a lot when Six Flags' options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Six Flags Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 17.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.80. Six Flags after-hype prediction price | USD 17.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Six Flags to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Six contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Six Flags Entertainment will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Six Flags trading at USD 17.47, that is roughly USD 0.0108 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Six Flags' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Six Flags Entertainment options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Six Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Six Flags' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Six Flags' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Six Flags stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Six Flags' open interest, investors have to compare it to Six Flags' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Six Flags is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Six. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Six Flags Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Six price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Six using various technical indicators. When you analyze Six charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Six Flags Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Six Flags Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 17.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Six Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Six Flags' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Six Flags Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Six Flags | Six Flags Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Six Flags Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Six Flags' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Six Flags' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.76 and 21.42, respectively. We have considered Six Flags' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Six Flags stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Six Flags stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4633 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0288 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.8007 |
Predictive Modules for Six Flags
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Six Flags Entertainment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Six Flags' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Six Flags After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Six Flags at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Six Flags or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Six Flags, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Six Flags Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Six Flags' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Six Flags' historical news coverage. Six Flags' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.64 and 21.30, respectively. We have considered Six Flags' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Six Flags is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Six Flags Entertainment is based on 3 months time horizon.
Six Flags Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Six Flags is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Six Flags backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Six Flags, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 3.83 | 1.20 | 0.17 | 27 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 27 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.47 | 17.47 | 0.00 |
|
Six Flags Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Six Flags Entertainment is traded for 17.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Six is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 111.34%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Six Flags is about 802.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.64. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Six Flags was currently reported as 6.07. The company recorded a loss per share of 18.7. Six Flags Entertainment last dividend was issued on the 5th of June 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 18th of November 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 27 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Six Flags to cross-verify your projections.Six Flags Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Six Flags' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Six Flags' future price movements. Getting to know how Six Flags' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Six Flags may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OSW | OneSpaWorld Holdings | (0.79) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.69 | (2.86) | 10.62 | |
| PRKS | United Parks Resorts | 0.53 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.60 | (5.35) | 28.36 | |
| DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | 1.97 | 17 per month | 1.70 | (0.03) | 3.92 | (2.80) | 9.66 | |
| SBET | Sharplink Gaming | (0.11) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.07 | (9.51) | 19.15 | |
| CPRI | Capri Holdings | 0.53 | 27 per month | 1.66 | 0.02 | 4.46 | (2.85) | 12.06 | |
| VAC | Marriot Vacations Worldwide | (0.11) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.80 | (4.18) | 28.68 | |
| MODG | MODG Old | (0.14) | 25 per month | 2.56 | 0.20 | 8.81 | (3.96) | 23.39 | |
| YETI | YETI Holdings | (0.79) | 14 per month | 1.54 | 0.18 | 4.49 | (3.10) | 12.03 | |
| HBI | Hanesbrands | 0.24 | 22 per month | 1.49 | (0.02) | 2.38 | (2.35) | 7.22 | |
| PTON | Peloton Interactive | 3.44 | 32 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.78 | (5.89) | 21.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Six Flags
For every potential investor in Six, whether a beginner or expert, Six Flags' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Six Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Six. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Six Flags' price trends.Six Flags Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Six Flags stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Six Flags could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Six Flags by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Six Flags Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Six Flags stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Six Flags shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Six Flags stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Six Flags Entertainment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 78043.56 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.35) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.48 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.25) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.87 |
Six Flags Risk Indicators
The analysis of Six Flags' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Six Flags' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting six stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Variance | 15.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Six Flags
The number of cover stories for Six Flags depends on current market conditions and Six Flags' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Six Flags is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Six Flags' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Six Flags Short Properties
Six Flags' future price predictability will typically decrease when Six Flags' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Six Flags Entertainment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Six Flags' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Six Flags' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 83.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Six Flags to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Six Flags. If investors know Six will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Six Flags listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Earnings Share (18.70) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Six Flags Entertainment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Six that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Six Flags' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Six Flags' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Six Flags' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Six Flags' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Six Flags' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Six Flags is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Six Flags' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.