GCM Grosvenor Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GCMG Stock | USD 12.45 0.10 0.81% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GCM Grosvenor on the next trading day is expected to be 12.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.70. GCM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GCM Grosvenor's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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GCM Grosvenor Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GCM Grosvenor on the next trading day is expected to be 12.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GCM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GCM Grosvenor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GCM Grosvenor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GCM Grosvenor | GCM Grosvenor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GCM Grosvenor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GCM Grosvenor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GCM Grosvenor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.00 and 13.90, respectively. We have considered GCM Grosvenor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GCM Grosvenor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GCM Grosvenor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7719 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.029 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1283 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.7 |
Predictive Modules for GCM Grosvenor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GCM Grosvenor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for GCM Grosvenor
For every potential investor in GCM, whether a beginner or expert, GCM Grosvenor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GCM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GCM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GCM Grosvenor's price trends.GCM Grosvenor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GCM Grosvenor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GCM Grosvenor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GCM Grosvenor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GCM Grosvenor Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GCM Grosvenor's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GCM Grosvenor's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
GCM Grosvenor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GCM Grosvenor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GCM Grosvenor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GCM Grosvenor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GCM Grosvenor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17387.85 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3704 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 |
GCM Grosvenor Risk Indicators
The analysis of GCM Grosvenor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GCM Grosvenor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gcm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9119 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8315 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.27) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether GCM Grosvenor is a strong investment it is important to analyze GCM Grosvenor's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact GCM Grosvenor's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding GCM Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GCM Grosvenor to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in GCM Stock please use our How to Invest in GCM Grosvenor guide.You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GCM Grosvenor. If investors know GCM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GCM Grosvenor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | Dividend Share 0.44 | Earnings Share 0.414 | Revenue Per Share 10.454 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 |
The market value of GCM Grosvenor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GCM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GCM Grosvenor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GCM Grosvenor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GCM Grosvenor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GCM Grosvenor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GCM Grosvenor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GCM Grosvenor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GCM Grosvenor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.