GCM Grosvenor Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GCMG Stock | USD 11.29 0.11 0.96% |
GCM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of GCM Grosvenor's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 27th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of GCM Grosvenor's share price is approaching 45. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling GCM Grosvenor, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.298 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.238 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.778 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.874 | Wall Street Target Price 16.25 |
Using GCM Grosvenor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GCM Grosvenor from the perspective of GCM Grosvenor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards GCM Grosvenor using GCM Grosvenor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards GCM using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of GCM Grosvenor's stock price.
GCM Grosvenor Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in GCM Grosvenor's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards GCM. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of GCM Grosvenor stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 12.0063 | Short Percent 0.0278 | Short Ratio 1.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.7 M | 50 Day MA 11.3542 |
GCM Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GCM Grosvenor on the next trading day is expected to be 11.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93.GCM Grosvenor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to GCM Grosvenor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in GCM. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding GCM can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around GCM Grosvenor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of GCM Grosvenor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about GCM Grosvenor.
GCM Grosvenor Implied Volatility | 1.02 |
GCM Grosvenor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of GCM Grosvenor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if GCM Grosvenor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that GCM Grosvenor stock will not fluctuate a lot when GCM Grosvenor's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GCM Grosvenor on the next trading day is expected to be 11.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93. GCM Grosvenor after-hype prediction price | USD 11.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GCM Grosvenor to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current GCM contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that GCM Grosvenor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0638% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With GCM Grosvenor trading at USD 11.29, that is roughly USD 0.007197 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating GCM Grosvenor's daily price movement you should consider acquiring GCM Grosvenor options at the current volatility level of 1.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 GCM Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast GCM Grosvenor's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in GCM Grosvenor's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for GCM Grosvenor stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current GCM Grosvenor's open interest, investors have to compare it to GCM Grosvenor's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of GCM Grosvenor is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in GCM. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
GCM Grosvenor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GCM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GCM using various technical indicators. When you analyze GCM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GCM Grosvenor Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GCM Grosvenor on the next trading day is expected to be 11.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GCM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GCM Grosvenor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GCM Grosvenor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GCM Grosvenor | GCM Grosvenor Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GCM Grosvenor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GCM Grosvenor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GCM Grosvenor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.86 and 12.72, respectively. We have considered GCM Grosvenor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GCM Grosvenor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GCM Grosvenor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.43 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0031 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1136 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.93 |
Predictive Modules for GCM Grosvenor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GCM Grosvenor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GCM Grosvenor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GCM Grosvenor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GCM Grosvenor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GCM Grosvenor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GCM Grosvenor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GCM Grosvenor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GCM Grosvenor's historical news coverage. GCM Grosvenor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.87 and 12.71, respectively. We have considered GCM Grosvenor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GCM Grosvenor is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GCM Grosvenor is based on 3 months time horizon.
GCM Grosvenor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GCM Grosvenor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GCM Grosvenor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GCM Grosvenor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.29 | 11.29 | 0.00 |
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GCM Grosvenor Hype Timeline
GCM Grosvenor is currently traded for 11.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GCM is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on GCM Grosvenor is about 677.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.29. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.93. GCM Grosvenor last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. The entity had 1:1 split on the 18th of November 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GCM Grosvenor to cross-verify your projections.GCM Grosvenor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GCM Grosvenor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GCM Grosvenor's future price movements. Getting to know how GCM Grosvenor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GCM Grosvenor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SII | Sprott Inc | (0.69) | 15 per month | 1.37 | 0.33 | 4.64 | (2.87) | 11.26 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | 0.14 | 8 per month | 1.07 | (0.03) | 2.13 | (2.11) | 5.76 | |
| BBT | Beacon Financial | (0.64) | 10 per month | 1.44 | 0.12 | 4.08 | (3.01) | 9.56 | |
| BUR | Burford Capital | (0.64) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.11 | (3.77) | 15.16 | |
| PAX | Patria Investments | (0.30) | 11 per month | 1.33 | 0.07 | 2.24 | (2.37) | 7.49 | |
| ECC | Eagle Point Credit | 0.80 | 26 per month | 1.49 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.11) | 10.10 | |
| TY | Tri Continental Closed | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.04 | (0.89) | 7.86 | |
| OXSQ | Oxford Square Capital | 0.20 | 26 per month | 1.28 | 0.03 | 3.78 | (2.20) | 8.47 | |
| BBUC | Brookfield Business Corp | (0.30) | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.65 | (3.05) | 12.10 | |
| GRAB | Grab Holdings | (0.66) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 4.62 | (4.32) | 12.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for GCM Grosvenor
For every potential investor in GCM, whether a beginner or expert, GCM Grosvenor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GCM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GCM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GCM Grosvenor's price trends.GCM Grosvenor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GCM Grosvenor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GCM Grosvenor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GCM Grosvenor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GCM Grosvenor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GCM Grosvenor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GCM Grosvenor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GCM Grosvenor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GCM Grosvenor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8350.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.41) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.98 |
GCM Grosvenor Risk Indicators
The analysis of GCM Grosvenor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GCM Grosvenor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gcm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9711 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Variance | 1.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GCM Grosvenor
The number of cover stories for GCM Grosvenor depends on current market conditions and GCM Grosvenor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GCM Grosvenor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GCM Grosvenor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GCM Grosvenor Short Properties
GCM Grosvenor's future price predictability will typically decrease when GCM Grosvenor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GCM Grosvenor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GCM Grosvenor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GCM Grosvenor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 190.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 89.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GCM Grosvenor to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in GCM Stock please use our How to Invest in GCM Grosvenor guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GCM Grosvenor. If investors know GCM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GCM Grosvenor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.298 | Dividend Share 0.45 | Earnings Share 0.32 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 |
The market value of GCM Grosvenor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GCM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GCM Grosvenor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GCM Grosvenor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GCM Grosvenor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GCM Grosvenor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GCM Grosvenor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GCM Grosvenor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GCM Grosvenor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.