GDEV Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GDEV Stock | USD 16.83 0.94 5.29% |
GDEV Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of GDEV's share price is approaching 46. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling GDEV, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using GDEV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GDEV Inc from the perspective of GDEV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GDEV Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 16.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.20. GDEV after-hype prediction price | USD 17.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GDEV to cross-verify your projections. GDEV Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GDEV price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GDEV using various technical indicators. When you analyze GDEV charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
GDEV Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GDEV Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 16.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 2.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GDEV Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GDEV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GDEV Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GDEV | GDEV Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
GDEV Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GDEV's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GDEV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.23 and 24.87, respectively. We have considered GDEV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GDEV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GDEV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1871 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0034 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0523 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.2 |
Predictive Modules for GDEV
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GDEV Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GDEV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GDEV After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GDEV at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GDEV or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GDEV, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GDEV Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GDEV's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GDEV's historical news coverage. GDEV's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.45 and 26.09, respectively. We have considered GDEV's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GDEV is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GDEV Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
GDEV Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GDEV is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GDEV backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GDEV, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 8.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.83 | 17.77 | 0.00 |
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GDEV Hype Timeline
GDEV Inc is currently traded for 16.83. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GDEV is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on GDEV is about 18086.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.83. About 85.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.88. GDEV Inc last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2025. The entity had 1:10 split on the 29th of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GDEV to cross-verify your projections.GDEV Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GDEV's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GDEV's future price movements. Getting to know how GDEV's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GDEV may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GRVY | Gravity Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.14 | 2.28 | (1.55) | 10.11 | |
| SOHU | SohuCom | 0.40 | 15 per month | 1.69 | 0.08 | 4.29 | (2.72) | 12.14 | |
| DDI | Doubledown Interactive Co | (0.01) | 9 per month | 2.03 | (0.02) | 3.09 | (2.65) | 10.09 | |
| EGAN | eGain | 0.08 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.19 | (6.63) | 32.05 | |
| BGIN | Bgin Blockchain Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.37 | (9.12) | 25.24 | |
| BZAI | Blaize Holdings | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 6.40 | (8.92) | 29.46 | |
| GRRR | Gorilla Technology Group | 0.07 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 9.43 | (7.66) | 19.51 | |
| RMNI | Rimini Street | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.53 | (3.72) | 15.77 | |
| XRX | Xerox Corp | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.52 | (7.72) | 22.00 | |
| IMXI | International Money Express | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 0.40 | (0.33) | 1.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for GDEV
For every potential investor in GDEV, whether a beginner or expert, GDEV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GDEV Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GDEV. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GDEV's price trends.GDEV Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GDEV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GDEV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GDEV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GDEV Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GDEV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GDEV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GDEV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GDEV Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 370.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.77 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 5.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.38) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.94) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.53 |
GDEV Risk Indicators
The analysis of GDEV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GDEV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gdev stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.32 | |||
| Variance | 69.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GDEV
The number of cover stories for GDEV depends on current market conditions and GDEV's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GDEV is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GDEV's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GDEV Short Properties
GDEV's future price predictability will typically decrease when GDEV's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GDEV Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GDEV's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GDEV's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 134.8 M |
Additional Tools for GDEV Stock Analysis
When running GDEV's price analysis, check to measure GDEV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GDEV is operating at the current time. Most of GDEV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GDEV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GDEV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GDEV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.