Generac Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GNRC Stock | USD 172.37 4.81 2.71% |
Generac Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Generac Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Generac Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Generac Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Generac Holdings' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.4421 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.5407 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.0726 | Wall Street Target Price 202.9412 |
Using Generac Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Generac Holdings from the perspective of Generac Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Generac Holdings using Generac Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Generac using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Generac Holdings' stock price.
Generac Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Generac Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Generac. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Generac Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 156.1381 | Short Percent 0.0846 | Short Ratio 3.87 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.2 M | 50 Day MA 154.4544 |
Generac Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Generac Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 172.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 215.80.Generac Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Generac Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Generac. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Generac can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Generac Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Generac Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Generac Holdings.
Generac Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
Generac Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Generac Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Generac Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Generac Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Generac Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Generac Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 172.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 215.80. Generac Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 178.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Generac Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Generac contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Generac Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Generac Holdings trading at USD 172.37, that is roughly USD 0.0593 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Generac Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Generac Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Generac Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Generac Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Generac Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Generac Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Generac Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Generac Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Generac Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Generac. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Generac Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Generac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Generac using various technical indicators. When you analyze Generac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Generac Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Generac Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 172.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.60, mean absolute percentage error of 19.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 215.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Generac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Generac Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Generac Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Generac Holdings | Generac Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Generac Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Generac Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Generac Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 169.51 and 175.23, respectively. We have considered Generac Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Generac Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Generac Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2442 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2847 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5967 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0233 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 215.8 |
Predictive Modules for Generac Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Generac Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Generac Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Generac Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Generac Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Generac Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Generac Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Generac Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Generac Holdings' historical news coverage. Generac Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 175.27 and 180.99, respectively. We have considered Generac Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Generac Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Generac Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Generac Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Generac Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Generac Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Generac Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.86 | 0.77 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
172.37 | 178.13 | 0.54 |
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Generac Holdings Hype Timeline
Generac Holdings is currently traded for 172.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Generac is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 178.13 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 78.14%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Generac Holdings is about 1186.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 172.32. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.3 B. Net Income was 316.98 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.72 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Generac Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Generac Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Generac Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Generac Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Generac Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Generac Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DCI | Donaldson | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.22 | 2.43 | (1.74) | 9.29 | |
| RRX | Regal Beloit | 0.24 | 8 per month | 1.94 | 0.12 | 4.19 | (3.75) | 11.58 | |
| WTS | Watts Water Technologies | 0.49 | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.09 | 2.75 | (1.61) | 9.37 | |
| FLS | Flowserve | (0.54) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.15 | 2.46 | (2.28) | 8.50 | |
| AOS | Smith AO | (0.36) | 10 per month | 0.90 | 0.15 | 2.66 | (2.04) | 7.53 | |
| SPXC | SPX Corp | 1.00 | 9 per month | 1.85 | 0.04 | 3.62 | (3.22) | 17.00 | |
| PSN | Parsons Corp | (0.89) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.68 | (3.89) | 25.78 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | (3.48) | 9 per month | 1.60 | 0.09 | 2.73 | (2.10) | 9.70 | |
| CR | Crane Company | (2.61) | 9 per month | 2.46 | (0.02) | 2.36 | (2.32) | 15.15 | |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 3.71 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.03 | (2.65) | 6.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Generac Holdings
For every potential investor in Generac, whether a beginner or expert, Generac Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Generac Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Generac. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Generac Holdings' price trends.Generac Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Generac Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Generac Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Generac Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Generac Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Generac Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Generac Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Generac Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Generac Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 39036.13 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.70) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 173.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 173.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.81) |
Generac Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Generac Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Generac Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting generac stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.85 | |||
| Variance | 8.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Generac Holdings
The number of cover stories for Generac Holdings depends on current market conditions and Generac Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Generac Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Generac Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Generac Holdings Short Properties
Generac Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Generac Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Generac Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Generac Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Generac Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 281.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Generac Holdings to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Generac Stock refer to our How to Trade Generac Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Will Electrical Components & Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Generac diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Generac Holdings. Market participants price Generac higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Generac Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Earnings Share 5.23 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Generac Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Generac's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Generac Holdings' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Generac Holdings' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Generac Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Generac Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Generac Holdings' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.