Grocery Outlet Holding Stock Price Patterns
| GO Stock | USD 10.32 0.28 2.79% |
Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.236 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7826 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.8249 | Wall Street Target Price 13.9615 |
Using Grocery Outlet hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Grocery Outlet Holding from the perspective of Grocery Outlet response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Grocery Outlet using Grocery Outlet's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Grocery using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Grocery Outlet's stock price.
Grocery Outlet Short Interest
An investor who is long Grocery Outlet may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Grocery Outlet and may potentially protect profits, hedge Grocery Outlet with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.5278 | Short Percent 0.3611 | Short Ratio 10.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 25.2 M | 50 Day MA 10.0621 |
Grocery Outlet Holding Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Grocery Outlet's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Grocery. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Grocery can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Grocery Outlet Holding. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Grocery Outlet's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Grocery Outlet.
Grocery Outlet Implied Volatility | 1.33 |
Grocery Outlet's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Grocery Outlet Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Grocery Outlet's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Grocery Outlet stock will not fluctuate a lot when Grocery Outlet's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Grocery Outlet to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Grocery because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Grocery Outlet after-hype prediction price | USD 10.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Grocery contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Grocery Outlet Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0831% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Grocery Outlet trading at USD 10.32, that is roughly USD 0.008579 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Grocery Outlet's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Grocery Outlet Holding options at the current volatility level of 1.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Grocery Outlet After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Grocery Outlet at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Grocery Outlet or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Grocery Outlet, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Grocery Outlet Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Grocery Outlet's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Grocery Outlet's historical news coverage. Grocery Outlet's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.04 and 12.60, respectively. We have considered Grocery Outlet's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Grocery Outlet is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Grocery Outlet Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Grocery Outlet Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Grocery Outlet is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Grocery Outlet backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Grocery Outlet, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.28 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.32 | 10.32 | 0.00 |
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Grocery Outlet Hype Timeline
As of February 18, 2026 Grocery Outlet Holding is listed for 10.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Grocery is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Grocery Outlet is about 2780.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.32. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Grocery Outlet Holding has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.48. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.04. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Grocery Outlet Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Grocery Outlet's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Grocery Outlet's future price movements. Getting to know how Grocery Outlet's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Grocery Outlet may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets Incorporated | (0.88) | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.13 | 3.08 | (2.41) | 7.68 | |
| WMK | Weis Markets | 0.84 | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.09 | 2.22 | (1.65) | 6.30 | |
| VITL | Vital Farms | 0.48 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.50 | (5.75) | 16.04 | |
| COUR | Coursera | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.30 | (4.25) | 14.34 | |
| NWL | Newell Rubbermaid | (0.12) | 23 per month | 1.27 | 0.25 | 4.44 | (2.42) | 8.44 | |
| SPB | Spectrum Brands Holdings | 0.19 | 6 per month | 1.24 | 0.24 | 5.01 | (2.43) | 13.62 | |
| AFYA | Afya | 0.27 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.32 | (3.20) | 9.44 | |
| PXED | Phoenix Education Partners | 0.42 | 10 per month | 3.93 | 0.01 | 6.27 | (6.36) | 19.88 | |
| TR | Tootsie Roll Industries | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.99 | 0.04 | 2.19 | (1.40) | 6.77 | |
| UVV | Universal | (0.17) | 9 per month | 2.03 | (0.01) | 2.06 | (1.45) | 12.90 |
Grocery Outlet Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Grocery price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Grocery using various technical indicators. When you analyze Grocery charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Grocery Outlet Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Grocery Outlet stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Grocery Outlet Holding, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Grocery Outlet based on analysis of Grocery Outlet hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Grocery Outlet's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Grocery Outlet's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 3.7E-5 | 6.0E-6 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.79 | 0.67 |
Pair Trading with Grocery Outlet
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Grocery Outlet position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Grocery Outlet will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Grocery Stock
| 0.84 | DDL | Dingdong Limited ADR | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | WRG | ORSERO SPA | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | DG | Dollar General | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | WILC | G Willi Food | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | DLTR | Dollar Tree | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | TWY | Alibaba Health Infor | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Grocery Outlet could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Grocery Outlet when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Grocery Outlet - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Grocery Outlet Holding to buy it.
The correlation of Grocery Outlet is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Grocery Outlet moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Grocery Outlet Holding moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Grocery Outlet can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Grocery Outlet Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Will Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail sector continue expanding? Could Grocery diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grocery Outlet. Market participants price Grocery higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Grocery Outlet data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Earnings Share (0.04) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.054 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Grocery Outlet Holding using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Grocery Outlet's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Grocery Outlet's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grocery Outlet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grocery Outlet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Grocery Outlet's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.