Gielda Papierow Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GPW Stock | 79.90 6.15 8.34% |
Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Gielda Papierow hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych from the perspective of Gielda Papierow response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych on the next trading day is expected to be 79.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.63. Gielda Papierow after-hype prediction price | PLN 79.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gielda |
Gielda Papierow Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gielda price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gielda using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gielda charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gielda Papierow Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych on the next trading day is expected to be 79.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gielda Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gielda Papierow's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gielda Papierow Stock Forecast Pattern
Gielda Papierow Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gielda Papierow's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gielda Papierow's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.97 and 81.40, respectively. We have considered Gielda Papierow's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gielda Papierow stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gielda Papierow stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6594 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3485 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8439 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.6342 |
Predictive Modules for Gielda Papierow
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gielda Papierow Wart. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gielda Papierow's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gielda Papierow Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Gielda Papierow at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gielda Papierow or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gielda Papierow, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gielda Papierow Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gielda Papierow is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gielda Papierow backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gielda Papierow, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
79.90 | 79.90 | 0.00 |
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Gielda Papierow Hype Timeline
Gielda Papierow Wart is currently traded for 79.90on Warsaw Stock Exchange of Poland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Gielda is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gielda Papierow is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 79.90. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in private.Gielda Papierow Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gielda Papierow's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gielda Papierow's future price movements. Getting to know how Gielda Papierow's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gielda Papierow may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALR | Alior Bank SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.12 | 3.25 | (2.06) | 11.35 | |
| RST | Road Studio SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.93 | (4.14) | 14.08 | |
| MON | Monnari Trade SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0.17 | 4.18 | (1.87) | 15.58 | |
| CFS | Centrum Finansowe Banku | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.95 | 0.01 | 3.74 | (3.61) | 19.15 | |
| MIL | Bank Millennium SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.55 | 0.05 | 3.52 | (2.81) | 10.08 | |
| IPO | Intersport Polska SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.17 | (4.26) | 13.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gielda Papierow
For every potential investor in Gielda, whether a beginner or expert, Gielda Papierow's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gielda Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gielda. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gielda Papierow's price trends.Gielda Papierow Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gielda Papierow stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gielda Papierow could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gielda Papierow by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gielda Papierow Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gielda Papierow stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gielda Papierow shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gielda Papierow stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gielda Papierow Wartosciowych entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gielda Papierow Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gielda Papierow's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gielda Papierow's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gielda stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Variance | 2.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.28) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gielda Papierow
The number of cover stories for Gielda Papierow depends on current market conditions and Gielda Papierow's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gielda Papierow is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gielda Papierow's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Gielda Stock Analysis
When running Gielda Papierow's price analysis, check to measure Gielda Papierow's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gielda Papierow is operating at the current time. Most of Gielda Papierow's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gielda Papierow's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gielda Papierow's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gielda Papierow to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.