Heritage Global Stock Forward View
| HGBL Stock | USD 1.34 0.02 1.52% |
Heritage Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Heritage Global's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Heritage Global's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Heritage Global fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Heritage Global's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1267 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.1667 | Wall Street Target Price 3.55 |
Using Heritage Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Heritage Global from the perspective of Heritage Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Heritage Global on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.95. Heritage Global after-hype prediction price | USD 1.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Global to cross-verify your projections. Heritage Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Heritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Heritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Heritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Heritage Global Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Heritage Global's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1990-03-31 | Previous Quarter 19.8 M | Current Value 19.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 5.8 M |
Heritage Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Heritage Global on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heritage Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Heritage Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Heritage Global | Heritage Global Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Heritage Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Heritage Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Heritage Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.21, respectively. We have considered Heritage Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heritage Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heritage Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4836 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0315 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0238 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.9521 |
Predictive Modules for Heritage Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heritage Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Heritage Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Heritage Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Heritage Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Heritage Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Heritage Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Heritage Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Heritage Global's historical news coverage. Heritage Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 4.25, respectively. We have considered Heritage Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Heritage Global is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Heritage Global is based on 3 months time horizon.
Heritage Global Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Heritage Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Heritage Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.90 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.34 | 1.35 | 0.75 |
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Heritage Global Hype Timeline
Heritage Global is currently traded for 1.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Heritage is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.35 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.75%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Heritage Global is about 58000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.34. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 45.36 M. Net Income was 5.18 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 31.17 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Global to cross-verify your projections.Heritage Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Heritage Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Heritage Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Heritage Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Heritage Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PLUT | Plutus Financial Group | 0.03 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.83 | (3.32) | 9.93 | |
| TOP | Zhong Yang Financial | 0.01 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.91 | (2.91) | 12.56 | |
| ASRV | AmeriServ Financial | (0.07) | 7 per month | 2.03 | 0.08 | 3.30 | (3.40) | 14.58 | |
| CLST | Catalyst Bancorp | 0.09 | 7 per month | 0.26 | 0.11 | 1.58 | (0.96) | 3.36 | |
| ARBK | Argo Blockchain PLC | 0.13 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 12.49 | (17.52) | 91.48 | |
| STLE | Stylesite Marketing | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| DMYY | dMY Squared Technology | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.54 | (2.81) | 9.77 | |
| MDBH | MDB Capital Holdings | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.92 | (5.51) | 16.13 | |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.02 | 3.90 | (2.92) | 13.69 | |
| FSEA | First Seacoast Bancorp | 0.03 | 7 per month | 2.10 | 0.08 | 4.23 | (3.38) | 25.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Heritage Global
For every potential investor in Heritage, whether a beginner or expert, Heritage Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Heritage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Heritage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Heritage Global's price trends.Heritage Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heritage Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heritage Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Heritage Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heritage Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heritage Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heritage Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heritage Global entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1610.82 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Heritage Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Heritage Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heritage Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting heritage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.84 | |||
| Variance | 8.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Heritage Global
The number of cover stories for Heritage Global depends on current market conditions and Heritage Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Heritage Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Heritage Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Heritage Global Short Properties
Heritage Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Heritage Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Heritage Global often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Heritage Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heritage Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Global to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Heritage Stock please use our How to buy in Heritage Stock guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Global. Market participants price Heritage higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Heritage Global assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | Earnings Share 0.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.091 | Return On Assets |
Heritage Global's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Heritage's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Heritage Global's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Heritage Global's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.