Hippo Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HIPO Stock | USD 30.69 0.21 0.68% |
Hippo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Hippo Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hippo Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hippo Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Hippo Holdings' share price is approaching 43. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hippo Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.465 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.51 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.04) | Wall Street Target Price 39.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.04 |
Using Hippo Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hippo Holdings from the perspective of Hippo Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hippo Holdings using Hippo Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hippo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hippo Holdings' stock price.
Hippo Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.88 |
Hippo Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hippo Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hippo Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hippo Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hippo Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hippo Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 30.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.11. Hippo Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 30.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hippo Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hippo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hippo Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.055% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Hippo Holdings trading at USD 30.69, that is roughly USD 0.0169 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hippo Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hippo Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Hippo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hippo Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hippo Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hippo Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hippo Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Hippo Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hippo Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hippo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Hippo Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hippo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hippo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hippo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hippo Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hippo Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 30.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hippo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hippo Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hippo Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hippo Holdings | Hippo Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Hippo Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hippo Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hippo Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.37 and 33.04, respectively. We have considered Hippo Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hippo Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hippo Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7624 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1336 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5518 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.1081 |
Predictive Modules for Hippo Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hippo Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Hippo Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hippo Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hippo Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hippo Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hippo Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hippo Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hippo Holdings' historical news coverage. Hippo Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.56 and 33.22, respectively. We have considered Hippo Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hippo Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hippo Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hippo Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hippo Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hippo Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hippo Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 2.33 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.69 | 30.89 | 0.03 |
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Hippo Holdings Hype Timeline
Hippo Holdings is currently traded for 30.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Hippo is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.89. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Hippo Holdings is about 2617.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.71. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.86. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Hippo Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:25 split on the 30th of September 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hippo Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Hippo Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hippo Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hippo Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Hippo Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hippo Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMSF | AMERISAFE | 1.64 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.47 | (2.16) | 6.71 | |
| EIG | Employers Holdings | (0.46) | 2 per month | 1.66 | 0.01 | 2.14 | (2.15) | 7.46 | |
| BHF | Brighthouse Financial | (0.31) | 11 per month | 0.75 | 0.10 | 0.94 | (1.28) | 31.02 | |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | 0.31 | 7 per month | 2.92 | 0.05 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.92 | 0.01 | 3.79 | (3.08) | 18.12 | |
| BOW | Bowhead Specialty Holdings | (0.17) | 10 per month | 2.53 | (0.0002) | 3.56 | (3.89) | 12.02 | |
| ASIC | Ategrity Specialty Insurance | (0.14) | 10 per month | 2.14 | (0.02) | 3.97 | (3.44) | 8.91 | |
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | 0.14 | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.09 | 3.31 | (2.58) | 9.25 | |
| ESQ | Esquire Financial Holdings | 0.58 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.03 | 2.69 | (2.65) | 7.20 | |
| UFCS | United Fire Group | (0.64) | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.06 | 2.14 | (2.09) | 17.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hippo Holdings
For every potential investor in Hippo, whether a beginner or expert, Hippo Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hippo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hippo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hippo Holdings' price trends.Hippo Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hippo Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hippo Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hippo Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hippo Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hippo Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hippo Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hippo Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hippo Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Hippo Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hippo Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hippo Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hippo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Variance | 5.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hippo Holdings
The number of cover stories for Hippo Holdings depends on current market conditions and Hippo Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hippo Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hippo Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hippo Holdings Short Properties
Hippo Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Hippo Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hippo Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hippo Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hippo Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 197.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hippo Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Hippo Stock, please use our How to Invest in Hippo Holdings guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Is Insurance Brokers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hippo Holdings. If investors know Hippo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hippo Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 3.77 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.262 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Hippo Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hippo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hippo Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hippo Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hippo Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hippo Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hippo Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hippo Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hippo Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.