Intact Financial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| IFC Stock | CAD 258.45 1.34 0.52% |
Intact Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Intact Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Intact Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Intact Financial fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Intact Financial's share price is approaching 39. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Intact Financial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.462 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.6246 | EPS Estimate Current Year 18.4066 | EPS Estimate Next Year 17.4864 | Wall Street Target Price 319.9167 |
Using Intact Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Intact Financial from the perspective of Intact Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intact Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 256.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.70. Intact Financial after-hype prediction price | CAD 258.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Intact |
Intact Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Intact price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Intact using various technical indicators. When you analyze Intact charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Intact Financial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intact Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 256.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34, mean absolute percentage error of 9.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Intact Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Intact Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Intact Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Intact Financial | Intact Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Intact Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Intact Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Intact Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 255.49 and 257.80, respectively. We have considered Intact Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Intact Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Intact Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2921 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.345 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0085 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 140.6993 |
Predictive Modules for Intact Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Intact Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Intact Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Intact Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Intact Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Intact Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Intact Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Intact Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Intact Financial's historical news coverage. Intact Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 257.28 and 259.62, respectively. We have considered Intact Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Intact Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Intact Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Intact Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Intact Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Intact Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Intact Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.16 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
258.45 | 258.45 | 0.00 |
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Intact Financial Hype Timeline
Intact Financial is currently traded for 258.45on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Intact is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 15.38%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Intact Financial is about 108.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 258.44. About 46.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Intact Financial was currently reported as 104.83. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.87. Intact Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 16.7. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2025. The firm had 3:2 split on the 22nd of February 2005. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Intact Financial to cross-verify your projections.Intact Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Intact Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Intact Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Intact Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Intact Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FFH | Fairfax Financial Holdings | (8.55) | 7 per month | 1.57 | (0.03) | 2.18 | (2.58) | 9.94 | |
| SLF | Sun Life Financial | 0.96 | 8 per month | 1.10 | (0.05) | 1.41 | (1.55) | 5.57 | |
| GWO | Great West Lifeco | (0.94) | 7 per month | 0.60 | 0.09 | 1.46 | (1.38) | 4.62 | |
| TD-PFJ | Toronto Dominion Bank Pref | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.44 | (0.10) | 0.74 | (0.77) | 2.21 | |
| POW | Power | 0.19 | 10 per month | 0.82 | 0.11 | 1.75 | (1.53) | 5.02 | |
| MFC | Manulife Financial Corp | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.74 | 0.13 | 1.79 | (1.19) | 5.56 | |
| DFY | Definity Financial Corp | 0.33 | 9 per month | 1.00 | 0.04 | 2.56 | (1.75) | 7.54 | |
| NA | National Bank of | (0.73) | 9 per month | 0.53 | 0.07 | 1.42 | (1.09) | 3.54 |
Other Forecasting Options for Intact Financial
For every potential investor in Intact, whether a beginner or expert, Intact Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Intact Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Intact. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Intact Financial's price trends.Intact Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Intact Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Intact Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Intact Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Intact Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Intact Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Intact Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Intact Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Intact Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6531.51 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.30) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 259.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 258.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.32) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.34) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.07 |
Intact Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Intact Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Intact Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting intact stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8659 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Intact Financial
The number of cover stories for Intact Financial depends on current market conditions and Intact Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Intact Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Intact Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Intact Financial Short Properties
Intact Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Intact Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Intact Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Intact Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Intact Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 178.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 18.9 B |
Other Information on Investing in Intact Stock
Intact Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether Intact Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Intact with respect to the benefits of owning Intact Financial security.