Illumina Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| ILMN Stock | USD 149.69 0.17 0.11% |
Illumina Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Illumina's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Illumina's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Illumina fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Illumina's share price is at 58. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Illumina, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1692 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.729 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.0689 | Wall Street Target Price 135.9412 |
Using Illumina hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Illumina from the perspective of Illumina response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Illumina using Illumina's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Illumina using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Illumina's stock price.
Illumina Short Interest
An investor who is long Illumina may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Illumina and may potentially protect profits, hedge Illumina with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 104.6616 | Short Percent 0.066 | Short Ratio 3.8 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.8 M | 50 Day MA 135.9104 |
Illumina Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Illumina on the next trading day is expected to be 153.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.63.Illumina Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Illumina's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Illumina. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Illumina can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Illumina. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Illumina's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Illumina.
Illumina Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
Illumina's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Illumina stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Illumina's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Illumina stock will not fluctuate a lot when Illumina's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Illumina on the next trading day is expected to be 153.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.63. Illumina after-hype prediction price | USD 149.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illumina to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Illumina contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Illumina will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Illumina trading at USD 149.69, that is roughly USD 0.044 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Illumina's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Illumina options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Illumina Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Illumina's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Illumina's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Illumina stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Illumina's open interest, investors have to compare it to Illumina's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Illumina is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Illumina. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Illumina Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Illumina price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Illumina using various technical indicators. When you analyze Illumina charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Illumina Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Illumina on the next trading day is expected to be 153.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52, mean absolute percentage error of 10.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Illumina Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Illumina's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Illumina Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Illumina | Illumina Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Illumina Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Illumina's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Illumina's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 151.67 and 155.86, respectively. We have considered Illumina's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Illumina stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Illumina stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.4371 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5185 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 153.6276 |
Predictive Modules for Illumina
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Illumina. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Illumina After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Illumina at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Illumina or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Illumina, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Illumina Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Illumina's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Illumina's historical news coverage. Illumina's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 147.59 and 151.79, respectively. We have considered Illumina's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Illumina is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Illumina is based on 3 months time horizon.
Illumina Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Illumina is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Illumina backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Illumina, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 2.10 | 1.77 | 0.60 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
149.69 | 149.69 | 0.00 |
|
Illumina Hype Timeline
Illumina is currently traded for 149.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.6. Illumina is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 40.31%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Illumina is about 119.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 149.09. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.62. Illumina had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1028:1000 split on the 25th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illumina to cross-verify your projections.Illumina Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Illumina's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Illumina's future price movements. Getting to know how Illumina's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Illumina may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DGX | Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | (3.13) | 26 per month | 1.07 | 0.01 | 2.68 | (1.85) | 6.29 | |
| WAT | Waters | (0.92) | 11 per month | 1.05 | 0.01 | 3.35 | (2.03) | 8.38 | |
| MEDP | Medpace Holdings | (11.55) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.02 | (2.33) | 10.01 | |
| ZBH | Zimmer Biomet Holdings | (3.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.92 | (2.20) | 18.45 | |
| HOLX | Hologic | (0.14) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.32 | (0.20) | 1.03 | |
| THC | Tenet Healthcare | (3.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.14 | (3.00) | 14.80 | |
| ICLR | ICON PLC | 4.72 | 10 per month | 2.25 | 0.01 | 4.70 | (3.51) | 13.31 | |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.50 | (3.58) | 12.18 | |
| GMAB | Genmab AS | 0.74 | 11 per month | 2.06 | 0.06 | 4.09 | (3.17) | 9.44 | |
| LH | Laboratory of | (1.07) | 23 per month | 1.04 | 0.04 | 2.71 | (1.98) | 5.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Illumina
For every potential investor in Illumina, whether a beginner or expert, Illumina's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Illumina Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Illumina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Illumina's price trends.Illumina Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Illumina stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Illumina could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Illumina by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Illumina Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Illumina stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Illumina shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Illumina stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Illumina entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 60210.32 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 147.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 148.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.85 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.17) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.96 |
Illumina Risk Indicators
The analysis of Illumina's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Illumina's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting illumina stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Variance | 13.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Illumina
The number of cover stories for Illumina depends on current market conditions and Illumina's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Illumina is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Illumina's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Illumina Short Properties
Illumina's future price predictability will typically decrease when Illumina's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Illumina often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Illumina's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Illumina's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 159 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Illumina to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Illumina Stock, please use our How to Invest in Illumina guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Will Life Sciences Tools & Services sector continue expanding? Could Illumina diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Illumina. Market participants price Illumina higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Illumina data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Earnings Share 4.46 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.004 | Return On Assets |
Illumina's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Illumina's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Illumina's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Illumina's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Illumina's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Illumina is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Illumina's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.