Iridium Communications Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| IRDM Stock | USD 27.91 0.59 2.16% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Iridium Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 26.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.09. Iridium Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Iridium Communications' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Iridium Communications' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Iridium Communications fundamentals over time.
Iridium |
Iridium Communications Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Iridium Communications' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2007-12-31 | Previous Quarter 63.5 M | Current Value 159.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 107.2 M |
Iridium Communications Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Iridium Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 26.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Iridium Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Iridium Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Iridium Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Iridium Communications | Iridium Communications Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Iridium Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Iridium Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Iridium Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.01 and 29.84, respectively. We have considered Iridium Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Iridium Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Iridium Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6903 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5917 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.0943 |
Predictive Modules for Iridium Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Iridium Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Iridium Communications' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Iridium Communications
For every potential investor in Iridium, whether a beginner or expert, Iridium Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Iridium Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Iridium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Iridium Communications' price trends.View Iridium Communications Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Iridium Communications Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Iridium Communications' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Iridium Communications' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Iridium Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Iridium Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Iridium Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Iridium Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Iridium Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Iridium Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Iridium Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Iridium Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting iridium stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Variance | 8.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.96 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Iridium Communications. If investors know Iridium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Iridium Communications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.074 | Dividend Share 0.54 | Earnings Share 0.93 | Revenue Per Share 6.697 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.077 |
The market value of Iridium Communications is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Iridium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Iridium Communications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Iridium Communications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Iridium Communications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Iridium Communications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Iridium Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Iridium Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Iridium Communications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.